Many UK operators are looking opportunistically at their competitors, as some consider closing shop amid the recent tax shock.
NEXT.io understands B2C companies of varying size are looking to acquire assets from businesses thinking of exiting the market, including databases, brands or entire entities.
It follows Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision last month to hike UK gambling taxes higher than expected, upending the economics of the sector nationwide and leading many operators to evaluate their futures in the market.
With the 40% online casino tax set to kick in from April 2026, and the 25% sports betting tax to be hiked the following year, many companies are still said to be unsure of their next moves.
At the top end of the scale, 888 and William Hill owner evoke has initiated a strategic review that sources suggest will likely result in the break-up of the company, but other, less debt-laden operators are not necessarily safe.
One source speaking to NEXT.io on the condition of anonymity said that smaller operators are likely to find it hardest to weather the impact, as few have solid enough positions in other global markets to reduce their exposure.
Elsewhere, the CEO of a small UK-facing brand looking to acquire assets told NEXT.io there is still a lot of confusion among top execs about exactly what they plan to do.
‘Still in disbelief’
They said: “There’s a section of the industry which is still in disbelief. They think this [the tax increase] is going to be rolled back to some degree.”
As such, many companies might not take concrete steps until the new online casino tax actually enters into effect from April. While they said it is too early to tell what exactly will happen, there is a general consensus that the majority of operators in the market will stay put.
However, the unnamed CEO said the business was looking at potential opportunities on a case-by-case basis, including by potentially adding new verticals or integrating databases from companies that do decide to exit the UK.
This opportunistic approach will see B2C players looking for a bargain in a fire sale.
They said: “If someone is going to just decide to close the shop, there could be a potential opportunity to acquire players in a faster way than through your affiliates – that’s it. You can gamble on a database.”
Sam Sadi, CEO of LiveScore Group, told NEXT.io that around a dozen companies were actively looking to sell “and probably another dozen who haven’t come to grips with reality yet”.
This will create acquisition opportunities, with LiveScore understood to be weighing up companies in the £20m to £100m annual NGR range.
Eilers & Krejcik projects 10.3% of UK market to exit
This view that the tax impact will be modest on overall consolidation was echoed by Alun Bowden, SVP strategic insight at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG).
EKG predicts that 10.3% of the UK market will leave by 2028, but Bowden said it was feasible the actual amount could be meaningfully lower.
Bowden projects two thirds of the UK’s online gambling market will be held by Flutter, Entain, evoke, Intralot, Rank and bet365, with 20% made up of second-tier UK operators like Super Group, LeoVegas, BetVictor, Betfred, FDJ, LiveScore Group, MrQ and Midnite.
He said: “Below that you have the big multi-brand groups like SkillOnNet, White Hat Gaming and Aspire, all of whom may stay in some form.
“Even beyond that you have firms like L&L where the UK is a core market, then you have various land-based linked groups like Buzz and Novomatic and Merkur.”
