Over the last few years, prediction markets have earned no shortage of column inches (or the digital equivalent of column inches), with much of the focus centring on regulation, and their perceived encroachment on the regulated gaming space.
Those are undoubtedly important themes, but they may have overshadowed a much more interesting story; one which helps to explain a level of mainstream adoption that saw nearly $45bn in volume for Kalshi and Polymarket last month.
Whatever happens from a regulatory perspective, the soaring success of prediction markets has already demonstrated something valuable about product design, and the value of thinking outside the box when it comes to building engaging betting products.
Traditional sportsbooks have evolved from bookmakers, and this carries a particular design language and user flow. Prediction markets, on the other hand, have evolved from fintech and trading. That difference is reflected throughout the user journey, from the interface itself, to the way users engage with the product throughout an event.
Trading places
Across any industry, the smartest digital products recognise habits people have already developed elsewhere and build upon them. Prediction markets are an excellent example of this process.
Retail investing has fundamentally changed the digital experiences millions of people interact with every day.
Commission-free trading platforms, popular investment apps like Robinhood (which reported 27.4 million funded customers in Q1 of this year), and even cryptocurrency exchanges have introduced regular consumers to live pricing, constantly moving markets, portfolio management, and the idea of buying and selling positions, rather than making one-off decisions.
With the help of the mainstream proliferation of “meme-stocks” and increased accessibility to investment vehicles, users who never previously gave the stock market a second thought are now familiar with the visual language of trading.
Prediction markets have piggybacked directly on this phenomenon. Rather than asking unfamiliar users to learn the conventions of sports betting, they present information in ways that already feel intuitive. Probabilities change in real time, and pricing is represented in easy-to-grasp percentages.
Prediction markets have not created a radically new experience, but have instead applied existing concepts that today’s digital consumer is generally familiar with. For product teams, that’s one of the most valuable lessons: great UX doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel – it can take a wheel from another successful vehicle.
UX that continually fosters engagement
Traditional sportsbooks are, by their nature, transaction-led. The objective is to help users find their favourite market, place a wager and then play the waiting game. Over time, operators have introduced innovations like cash out and increasingly sophisticated in-play markets, but the central premise has remained largely unchanged.
Arguably, prediction markets encourage a different mindset, by fostering continuous interaction. Users monitor prices with tickers, react to breaking news, and decide their next move based on the actions of the herd. Every injury update, substitution, weather delay or shift in momentum becomes another opportunity to check in and engage with the product.
While the availability and pricing of a cash out function on a sportsbook is entirely dictated by the operator, selling your position in a prediction market, at a transparent price, is a more compelling prospect.
In the way you may have watched GameStop stock soar and crater during Covid times, tracking the market can be as engaging as the sport itself. In an industry where engagement is increasingly difficult to earn and retain, that’s a significant product advantage.
One may suggest this continual engagement loop directly correlates to data that shows Kalshi and Polymarket’s growth increased throughout the World Cup, while FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbook apps peaked in the first week of the tournament.
Betting exchanges walked so prediction markets could run
Traditional betting exchanges are nothing new, particularly in the UK and Irish markets. Experienced exchange users have long understood the value of responding to market movement, instead of simply placing a bet and hoping for the best.
Prediction markets have repackaged this dynamic for a new generation of users.
Clean interfaces, simplified terminology and design principles borrowed from financial tech have made concepts that once appealed primarily to experienced bettors feel far more accessible to mainstream audiences.
It’s no less complex to use Polymarket, but it feels much simpler than logging on to Betfair.
The best product finds inspiration outside its own industry
One of the biggest mistakes product teams can make is looking exclusively at their direct competitors for their next move.
Consumers don’t compare their sportsbook app only with other sportsbooks, but with everything else on their phones. Banking apps, streaming platforms and social media provide a confluence of expectations around personalisation, payments, content discovery and community.
Operators should also seek to learn from what works outside their own confines, and prediction markets have recognised that reality. They have borrowed design and functionality from fintech, consumer investing and modern mobile-first product design.
In doing so, they have created an experience that feels contemporary, because it reflects broader digital habits and expectations.
Better product design is a key differentiator
Product design is not simply a UX consideration; it has become a commercial game-changer that can ultimately be the difference between adoption and neglect.
The products that retain users most effectively are those that feel intuitive from the very first interaction, reduce unnecessary friction and create reasons for users to return beyond completing a single transaction.
Better product experiences encourage longer sessions, greater engagement and stronger long-term retention, all of which become increasingly valuable as acquisition costs continue to rise.
This is exactly why prediction markets deserve attention, regardless of whether an operator intends to launch one. They demonstrate how thoughtful product design can reshape the way users interact with familiar mechanics. By borrowing proven interaction patterns from adjacent industries and designing around continual participation, they have created an experience that feels fresh, without fundamentally reinventing the underlying proposition.
The broader lesson is one the entire industry should take seriously. The next generation of users won’t arrive having only experienced sportsbooks. They’ll arrive having used investment apps, crypto exchanges, fantasy sports products, dating apps, and social platforms. Their expectations will be shaped by the best digital experiences available, not just the best betting products.
For all the regulatory and commercial conversation that surrounds prediction markets, the biggest lesson concerns product. At The Unit, some of our most impactful product inspiration is curated from the frontier of the digital landscape, including functionality and design from sports, crypto and NFT platforms. Simply put, to meet the evolving needs of the industry, the next generation of breakthrough gaming experiences will come from beyond the world of sportsbooks.
Alan Bruce is chief operating officer at The Unit and a betting and iGaming executive with more than two decades of industry experience. Having previously held leadership roles across global operators, suppliers and technology businesses, Alan combines deep technical expertise with commercial insight to help operators build better products, accelerate growth and deliver exceptional customer experiences.
