A rise in gambling tax rates in the Netherlands generated just €2m in additional revenue in 2025, well short of the €108m target set out by policymakers, according to a joint report from the Ministry of Finance and Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA).
According to the report, gambling tax receipts totalled €1.036bn during 2025. This was only marginally higher than €1.034bn in 2024, despite the tax rate increasing from 30.5% to 34.2% at the start of last year. A further rise to 37.8% came into effect on 1 January 2026.
Initially, the Dutch government had said the increased tax would generate an additional €108m in revenue in 2025, rising to €216m in 2026. However, officials now forecast that receipts in 2026 will be only €57m higher than 2024 levels.
The report said the tax increase had failed to achieve its intended objective, with additional revenues falling short of expectations after the tax base declined. This, the report added, was possibly in part as a result of the higher rates.
Higher taxes, lower returns
Analysing the reasons for the shortfall, the report attempted to separate the impact of the tax increases from other developments affecting the Dutch gambling market.
While officials said it was not possible to fully isolate the effect of the higher rates, they concluded that a decline in the tax base had significantly reduced the expected revenue gains.
The report also noted that the tax rises coincided with several other major changes. Among these were stricter player protection measures, new restrictions on gambling advertising and sponsorship, and increased regulatory oversight of operators.
As a result, the Ministry of Finance and the KSA said it was difficult to determine precisely how much of the decline in tax revenues could be attributed directly to the higher rates.
Land-based sector under pressure
The report also highlighted ongoing pressure on the Dutch land-based gambling sector. It set out how both venue numbers and customer visits had declined over the past year.
According to the KSA, visits to gaming halls and Holland Casino venues fell from 4.6 million in the first quarter of 2025 to 4.1 million in the first quarter of 2026. This represented a year-on-year decline of approximately 11%.
The number of gaming hall venues has also continued to fall. The report pointed to a series of closures by operators including JVH Gaming and Fair Play Casino, both of which have publicly cited the gambling tax increase as one of the factors behind their decisions.
However, the report cautioned that the sector had already been facing a range of challenges before the tax rises were introduced. These include the long-term impact of Covid-19, the introduction of the Cruks self-exclusion register, competition from the regulated online market, and rising operating costs.
As a result, the report said it was not possible to determine the extent to which the venue closures and declining footfall were directly linked to the higher tax burden.
Wider impact on Dutch market
Despite concerns from operators, the report found no clear evidence that the tax increases had significantly affected the size of the regulated online gambling market. Online gross gaming revenue remained relatively stable, while the number of active licensed operators continued to increase.
However, the Ministry of Finance and KSA said it was difficult to draw firm conclusions about the wider impact of the tax rises. In addition to changes in player behaviour, the report noted that stricter affordability measures, advertising restrictions and other regulatory interventions had also reshaped the market.
The report further warned that the increase in gambling tax may have reduced other sources of government income. According to the analysis, higher gambling taxes are expected to lower profits at state-owned operators, reducing corporation tax payments, dividends and other contributions to the state.
As a result, officials said the overall benefit to public finances is likely to be lower than suggested by the increase in gambling tax receipts alone.
Government braces for more criticism
News of tax revenue falling far short of initial guidance will likely draw more criticism from those who voiced their opposition to the increases.
Last month, Arjan Blok, CEO of the Dutch Lottery, said the decision to increase gambling tax risked accelerating black market activity and reducing funding for good causes.
Dutch trade body VNLOK, which represents KSA-licensed online operators, has also hit out at the rises. It said higher taxes are backfiring by reducing tax revenue and pushing players to the unlicensed market.
