Star Wars fans don’t have to wait much longer for their next fix, following a recent announcement that there are two new Star Wars movies to be released in 2026. Since this confirmation, prediction markets have been taken by storm.
Lucasfilm and Disney have both confirmed that Star Wars will be returning to the big screen and the franchise will be gaining another two movies. The first addition is going to be The Mandalorian & Grogu, followed by the currently untitled second movie. If you’ve been staying up-to-date with the market, here’s the latest news that we’ve learned.
The Star Wars Franchise Is Growing: Two New Movies Are Set for a 2026 Release
Even before any official announcements, there were always strong incentives for another Star Wars movie. Not only is it a valuable franchise with a major fanbase, but the Star Wars universe is also huge and offers an unlimited potential. Now that another Star Wars movie has been confirmed, it’s closer than you may think. The Mandalorian & Grogu is set to arrive in theaters on May 22nd, 2026, and is going to be the first movie release since The Rise of Skywalker in 2019.
Additionally, Lucasfilm and Disney have announced that another movie will be arriving on December 18th, 2026, with that date being earmarked without an official movie title as of yet. Following these confirmations, prediction market sites have fluctuated. Kalshi, for instance, saw traders believing there was a 71.7% chance to now being 99%.
What Could Happen with the Movie Releases in 2026?
Just like cultural predictions, the movie industry is unpredictable, and there’s always a chance that there are delays or complications. For example, The Sonic the Hedgehog movie was delayed from its initial release date of November 8th, 2019, to February 14th, 2020. This came from backlash after fans didn’t like the original appearance of Sonic, after the release of the trailer.
Here are a few things that could delay the release, shifting the No contract from 1% chance to being the successful answer:
- The Mandalorian & Grogu doesn’t ‘count’ – With the latest Mandalorian movie arriving this month, many traders are worried that this release will not count towards the Yes contract.
- Release Delay – A second movie has been confirmed for December 18th, 2026. However, this doesn’t mean that the movie will 100% arrive on this date, as many factors can lead to delays, such as editing taking much longer than predicted.
Trading This Question on Kalshi
With the Yes contract probability rising by 27.3% recently, the market is on fire following the confirmations of the Star Wars movies. If you want to trade this question at Kalshi, all you need to do is tap the on-page banners. Here’s a breakdown of the contract prices at Kalshi:
| Chance | Yes Contract | No Contract | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a new Star Wars movie released in theaters before 2027? | 99% | 99¢ | 1¢ |
Final Thoughts on the Expanding Star Wars Universe
As of right now, the Yes contract at Kalshi is priced at 99¢ with a 99% chance. On October 28th, 2024, the probability started at 71.7%. While there isn’t much profit to be made if The Mandalorian & Grogu is released on schedule, those who bought Yes contracts early will get a return of $0.283. Of course, if this doesn’t count as part of the Star Wars universe, it falls on the release of the movie in December to go ahead as scheduled. Between now and then, anything could happen, with the market fluctuating with the movements.
