A fall shutdown was avoided, but Kalshi launched a market on September 22, 2026, asking its traders whether the federal government could shut down, at least partially, in December.
Currently, Kalshi traders put this possibility at around 30%, with a Yes contract currently priced at 34 cents and nearly $15,000 in overall trading volume.
The market resolution rules are clear. If the government misses a funding deadline, this alone isn’t enough for a Yes outcome. In other words, at least part of the federal government has to shut down at 10 a.m. ET on December 12, 2026.
This guide explains when and how Kalshi will resolve the market, what actually would qualify as a government shutdown under Kalshi’s rules, and which sources will verify the outcome.
Kalshi’s December 12 Government Shutdown Market: Probabilities and Rules
Kalshi launched its federal government shutdown market on September 22, 2026. It asks traders whether the US federal government will at least partially shut down at 10 a.m. ET on December 12. At the time of writing, Kalshi implies there is a 34% chance of this happening, with Yes contracts priced at 34 cents and No contracts at 68 cents.
The market’s trading volume has surpassed $15,000, suggesting strong interest other available politics predictions at Kalshi. The numbers reflect what Kalshi’s traders expect, and the odds are expected to shift as midterm elections approach, which are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The ground rules for the market resolution are very clear. A missed funding deadline by itself isn’t enough for a Yes resolution. According to the rules, the federal government must be at least partially shut down on the specific date.
For instance, the market’s outcome will be Yes if the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) releases a directive ordering the affected agencies to execute a plan for a shutdown with effect at 10 a.m. ET, or if the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) posts a status indicating that Federal Government operations vary by agency due to a partial lapse in appropriations.
At the same time, a technical funding lapse wouldn’t resolve the market to Yes if OMB directs the affected agencies to continue their standard operations. The same is true when it comes to government closures due to emergencies, bad weather, or holidays, unless they coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations.
The market’s outcome will be verified using information released by the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management. The market will close at 10 a.m. on December 12, with payout projected for 10:30 a.m. the next day.
Other Politics Markets on Kalshi
Kalshi also lists politics markets covering other trending topics, such as Trump’s approval rating, potential federal charges, and other political events. For instance, its Strait of Hormuz market that asks when traffic will return to normal has already generated over $46 million in trading volume.
Other markets track whether Trump will try to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook again, who will be ActBlue’s top fundraiser, and how many days Trump will be photographed this week.
If you’re looking for more options or just want to see how Kalshi compares to other similar sites, you can take a look at our full list of prediction market platforms.
