OpenAI and Anthropic are in an open race to see which one can make it to the public market first. Up until now the competition has purely been about building the best AI models, but that’s no longer enough.
Training these models comes at a huge cost and the only way to sustain it is through the capital raised as an IPO. But which one will get there first? Currently, it seems like Anthropic is leading this race, having already partnered with a law firm to get the ball rolling. However, nothing is a sure thing in tech.
The Current Position of OpenAI and Anthropic
Right now, it looks like both OpenAI and Anthropic are moving towards IPOs, with reports suggesting they’re both aiming for late 2026. Anthropic does seem to be further along in the process, with impressive revenue growth, while OpenAI has faced quite a number of problems. Because of this, it seems more realistic that Anthropic may make the 2026 deadline, according to economy prediction sites, with OpenAI following in 2027.
Key Factors That Could Lead to an IPO
When considering whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first, we have to consider why a company would want this and what the benefits are.
Capital Requirements
We’ve all read the news articles about how expensive platforms like ChatGPT and Claude are. Training AI models can exceed costs of $100 million due to the huge computational needs, including hardware, chips, infrastructure and so on. Unlike traditional software models, AI models are continuously being retrained and improved and updated, which means that these costs are just going to continue. This means that both companies are in need of capital, which an IPO would bring.
Competitive Pressure in AI
The AI industry is just like any other tech industry in that it’s increasingly high-stakes, with a lot of competition. If either OpenAI or Anthropic were to go IPO, or become available for public investment, it would immediately get access to a significant capital boost.
What Analysts and Industry Insiders Are Saying
We took a look at some of the most popular prediction markets to see what other traders think is going to happen. Currently, it looks like those that have put their predictions in already are leaning towards Anthropic going IPO first. Across multiple platforms Antrophic is predicted to have a 68% chance of going IPO before OpenAI.
Both companies are reportedly targeting a 2026 IPO, Anthropic is said to be much further into the process, hiring lawyers with signals readiness to move forward. That being said, Anthropic also recently lost their major contract with the US Department of Defense which is sure to have put a spanner in the works. Now it seems to be a case of whether Anthropic can get back on track before they get overtaken by OpenAI.
How To Trade On AI Company Outcomes at Kalshi
Trading contracts at Kalshi works the same as any other prediction market. Simply sign up using our links and once you’ve created your account, type ‘Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?’. This will immediately load up the correct market so you can analyse the charts and see what others are saying. Alternatively, you could use the quick links at the top of the page, just make sure that you click on ‘Financials’ rather than ‘Companies’ or ‘Tech & Science’.
Will OpenAI Or Anthropic IPO First: Make Your Predictions on Kalshi
So it looks like Anthropic is going to make it to market first, but it’s definitely not a sure thing yet. Following the loss of a huge government contract, the company is now scrambling to recover. Despite this, it doesn’t necessarily seem like OpenAI has the pieces in place to beat them to the race. The most likely outcome seems to be that both will delay their IPO to very late this year/early 2027. Start making your predictions on Kalshi by tapping the banners on this page.
