Will marijuana be rescheduled, and when might that happen? This question is getting a lot of attention on Kalshi, with the market predicting a 51% chance of a reschedule taking place before January 2027. We’ll be looking at the current event contract prices, what they mean, and factors that could affect the likelihood of this event occurring.
Current Marijuana Rescheduling Updates
There’s a proposal to reschedule cannabis from Schedule I, the most restrictive category, to Schedule III. The Department of Justice published this proposal last year, and by January this year, the public comment period had closed after gathering over 40,000 responses.
Right now, the DEA is reviewing those comments, and the final decision will be announced once that process is complete. Prediction markets on Kalshi already have several contracts trading on when that might happen.
Key Factors That Could Lead To Marijuana Getting Rescheduled
Before we get into the current contract prices, let’s take a look at the crucial factors that could affect the likelihood of this event happening.
Medical Use Considerations
One of the main reasons why the proposal was initiated in the first place is the view that marijuana has accepted medical uses that could help with certain health conditions.
Review Process by The DEA
The DEA is reviewing thousands of comments right now. This could affect the likelihood of this event happening because it takes into consideration what the change could mean for the public if it is approved.
Government Support
Government support plays a major role here. From all indications, the government is in support of the Marijuana Rescheduling proposal, especially since it was the HHS that recommended that marijuana should be moved from Schedule I to Schedule III.
What The Market Is Saying On Kalshi
The contract prices suggest that traders think the rescheduling is very likely to happen within the next couple of years. The contract for rescheduling marijuana before 2027 is priced at 51¢, which means a 51% chance, while before 2028 shows up to a 79% chance of occurrence. This shows that most traders believe marijuana will be rescheduled, but there’s uncertainty on when it could happen.
How To Trade This Question At Kalshi
You can trade this question at Kalshi, but remember that prices change frequently as traders react to new information. So the current prices could be different in the next few days. That said, here’s a view of the contract prices right now.
| Timeline | Chance | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 2026 | 22% | 22¢ | 81¢ |
| Before 2027 | 49% | 51¢ | 51¢ |
| Before 2028 | 79% | 79¢ | 24¢ |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 83% | 87¢ | 18¢ |
Yes and No prices may not always add up to exactly $1, as they are based on live orders in the market. You can check the latest prices and trade this market at Kalshi by using the banners on this page.
Trade On Whether Marijuana Will Be Rescheduled At Kalshi
If a topic is garnering public interest, there’s a good chance you’ll find a market for it on Kalshi. There’s still a lot of interest in whether marijuana will be rescheduled and when it could happen, especially with the review process ongoing.
If you’re interested in trading event contracts in this market or simply curious about prediction markets in general, you can click the banners on this page to check out the available markets on Kalshi.
