Ever since NASA announced its plans to land on the moon (again), the space race has been heating up. Two companies, SpaceX and Blue Origin, are desperate to land contracts with the agency so use their landers.
At Kalshi, you can trade contracts on whether Blue Origin will reach the moon before SpaceX. Right now it’s looking likely that they will, but things can always change. Spacecraft are incredibly complex, so there are many factors that will influence who wins this race. This includes refuelling abilities, launch vehicles and life support systems.
The Space Race: Blue Origin Vs SpaceX
The space race is seriously heating up as Blue Origin and SpaceX compete for huge contracts. NASA has declared that they will use whichever lander is ready first. Of course, to be considered ready, the landers will have to pass strict interoperability and docking tests. These will likely take place in 2027, which means that this prediction market is definitely one for long-term traders.
Key Factors That Could Drive The Moon Landing Race
You may think that one lander is much like another, but there are actually quite a few factors influencing which will be ready first.
Refuelling Capabilities
Neither SpaceX nor Blue Origin can fly their spacecraft straight to the moon with all of the fuel that they need. SpaceX uses multiple tankers to refuel, whereas Blue Origin uses cryogenic refuelling. Being able to refuel in a timely manner will be a key factor in securing those contracts.
Launch Vehicles
Both the SpaceX and Blue Origin landers will require huge heavy-lift rockets that are still very much in their infancy. The SpaceX system is further along but still has a huge amount of testing to be done, and Blue Origin’s has been delayed by launch incidents.
Life Support Systems
Both landers will require incredibly complex life support systems, and without them, neither can support human flight.
What Analysts and Forecast Models Are Saying
Currently, it looks like there is a 66% probability that Blue Origin will land on the moon before SpaceX. For the past five months, most traders and analysts have favored Blue Origin to win this race. However, this race is far from over and we’ll have to wait at least a year to see any substantial progress.
How to Trade This Question at Kalshi
To trade on this question at Kalshi, you’ll need to log in or sign up for your account. Like many prediction market sites, you can grab a $10 bonus if you’re new to Kalshi, but you’ll need to make a qualifying trade to make it. There is a 66% chance that Blue Origin will beat SpaceX and a 43% chance that they won’t, and which contract you choose is up to you.
| Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? | Chance | Contract price |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | $0.64 |
| No | 43% | $0.41 |
Conclusion – The Moon Race Is on
SpaceX and Blue Origin are racing to build the best landers in an attempt to secure NASA contracts. According to Kalshi traders, Blue Origin is currently winning this race, with a 66% chance of beating SpaceX. You can get involved and trade on which outcome you think is most likely. You’ll need a Kalshi account to do so, which you can sign up for using our links.
