On July 14 New York became the first state to impose a statewide data center moratorium with Governor Kathy Hochul signing Executive Order 62 to freeze environmental permit applications on any new or expanded facility consuming at least 50 megawatts.
Kalshi traders caught on quick and are already pricing the chances of a second state following with its own statewide pause before January 1, 2027. The contract is sitting at 56% Yes to 44% No at the moment with roughly $3,615 in volume, and that narrow gap hasn’t budged much since the contract opened.
The Political Momentum Behind Data Center Moratoriums
There’s a growing push in statehouses across the country to do something about data center expansion.
Statewide Action Is Still Rare
NCSL counts at least 15 state legislatures that considered some form of data center ban or pause during 2026. So far though, New York is the only state where any of those efforts resulted in a binding statewide measure.
Local Restrictions Are Outpacing State Efforts
It looks completely different at the municipal level with Brookings reporting that more than 100 local communities had enacted data center moratoriums this year. Maine’s legislature even passed a moratorium through both chambers before Governor Janet Mills vetoed it in April.
Factors That Could Push a Second State to Act
There are a few reasons why a second state could still be possible before the year is out.
Hochul Proved Governors Can Bypass Legislatures
Hochul bypassed the moratorium bill Albany was still working through and leaned on her executive permitting authority instead, so any governor facing enough pressure on this issue could technically do the same.
Pennsylvania and Michigan Have Live Bills
Pennsylvania’s bill proposes a full statewide moratorium on large-scale data center development while Michigan is looking to pause new approvals through April 2027, though committee is as far as either one has moved.
Community Pressure Keeps Building
Local moratoria and protests springing up across the country tend to come back to the same handful of concerns like electricity costs, grid strain, water consumption and environmental issues.
Why No May Still Happen
Six states killed moratorium bills this session alone, and the governors who didn’t veto them chose regulation instead.
Most Moratorium Bills Have Stalled
Proposals failed this session in Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Delaware’s Senate went a step further and rejected a motion to even consider a bill.
Governors Are Choosing Regulation Over Bans
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer answered moratorium pressure on July 15 with a plan built around ratepayer safeguards and environmental protections. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has taken a similar approach championing development standards through his GRID initiative rather than blocking projects.
The Contract Definition Is Strict
On Kalshi’s economy predictions, only a true statewide moratorium, pause or ban qualifies. County and municipal restrictions don’t count and neither do tax changes or environmental studies.
What Analysts Are Saying
The Yes/No split on prediction market sites is tight and the available policy research doesn’t do much to settle the tie. MultiState reports heavy legislative resistance to state moratorium bills even while local restrictions keep gaining ground.
How to Trade This on Kalshi
Yes contracts settle if any second US state enacts a qualifying statewide moratorium before January 1, 2027. No contracts settle if New York remains the only state to have acted by that deadline.
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Another state enacts a statewide data center moratorium | 56% | 56¢ | 44¢ |
One Signature Could Change Everything
The ‘Yes’ side has a chance through executive action, but the No has a long list of failed bills and governors who’d rather regulate than ban. Click a banner on the page to check the latest pricing.
