The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is one of the world’s most prestigious honours. That’s thanks in part to how stiff the competition is, with dozens of leading economists considered for the award each year, and 2026 is no exception.
Traders at prediction market platforms are already having their say on who they believe will receive the award. However, there’s no clear favorite just yet, with the most likely candidate, Partha Dasgupta, holding the highest implied probability on Kalshi at around 14%. Keep reading as we break down this event and how you can make your own predictions.
Historical Economics Nobel Prize Winners
To get a better understanding of who could win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, it’s a smart move to look back at previous winners. Last year, in 2025, the prize was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their groundbreaking research into how innovation drives long-term economic growth.
The year prior, in 2024, it was awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson for demonstrating how strong political and economic institutions shape prosperity. And finally, in 2023, Claudia Goldin received the award for advancing our understanding of women’s labour market participation.
Key Factors That Could Influence Who Wins The Economics Nobel Prize
If you want to trade who will win the Nobel Prize in Economics on prediction market platforms, it’s important to know which factors could influence the outcome. Let’s take a closer look:
- Long-term impact – Research that has changed economic theory or best practice.
- Influence on policy – Economic work that has shaped how governments or central banks make decisions.
- Academic recognition – High citation counts and widespread acceptance from the economics community.
- Originality – Research that introduces new ways of understanding economic issues.
- Real-world relevance – Research that addresses major global challenges, including inequality or economic growth.
- Lifetime contribution – Many winners are recognised after decades of influential research rather than a single breakthrough.
You can review each candidate or nominee against these factors, as well as any additional consideration you think might be relevant.
How to Trade This Question at Kalshi
Kalshi is currently one of the most popular US prediction markets offering this event. Here’s a snapshot of the five most traded event contracts:
| Who Will Win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Chance | “Yes” Contract | “No” Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Partha Dasgupta | 14% | $0.14 | $0.92 |
| Richard Blundell | 11% | $0.15 | $0.93 |
| Robert Barro | 11% | $0.15 | $0.93 |
| Susan Athey | 11% | $0.15 | $0.93 |
| Andreu Mas-Colell | 10% | $0.14 | $0.94 |
When you join a trading platform like Kalshi, you’re getting much more than just this one event. You can also explore prediction markets across sports, economics, crypto, culture, climate, politics, and more. Plus, registering with one of our links on this page gets you a $10 trading welcome bonus.
Final Thoughts On Who Will Win The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics
Award ceremony prediction markets are always fun, and the upcoming 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics will be a popular one. But with no standout candidate, it looks like a challenging event to predict. That’s why it’s important to look back at previous winners and review the factors that could influence who will receive the award. If you’d like to try predicting this event, you can get started today by using one of our links to visit Kalshi.
