The 83rd Venice Film Festival runs from September 2nd-12th, with major awards including the Coppa Volpi for Best Actress, among those being handed out by Maggie Gyllenhaal’s jury. No film has been shown yet, so there is significant advance speculation.
As of right now, the market is pretty wide-open. As far as there are any front-runners, Claire Foy and Parker Posey are leading the interest at Kalshi, with both rated as having a 6% chance, but as those numbers suggest, there is little to no consensus on the likeliest winner. This may change in the coming weeks.
What We Know Right Now
There’s not much firm information to drive any trading decision, but the realities on the ground as of now are:
- Claire Foy and Parker Posey are inseparable in the market, with both trading at 6%
- Foy appears in Danny Boyle’s festival opener Ink; Posey is in Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine
- Such industry signals as there are indicate Foy may have the edge, but it is razor-thin
Why Claire Foy May Be in the Lead
There are counter-arguments for every assertion, but the following gives Foy backers at prediction market sites some cause for optimism:
Ink Has Immediate Visibility
One of the most useful advantages in any film festival is to be shown first. This allows a film to make an impression on an otherwise blank page, and Ink opens the festival on September 2. Foy’s performance will therefore be the one to beat as the festival continues.
Foy Has Significant Awards Pedigree
While yet to receive a trophy for her acting on the big screen, she has already been recognized with Primetime Emmy Awards and a Golden Globe for her portrayal as the young Elizabeth II in The Crown. She missed out on an Oscar nom for First Man in 2019 in what was a surprise snub, but was nominated for a Golden Globe for the same film.
What May Stand Against Claire Foy for the Volpi Cup
While the above is encouraging, the reasons why she remains tied at 6% with Posey on culture prediction sites are just as numerous:
Her Role May Not Be Highly Prominent
It’s not impossible that a strong performance in a non-lead role could win here, but Foy will need to steal the show: Ink is predominantly led by Guy Pearce as Rupert Murdoch and Jack O’Connell in the fictional role of Larry Lamb. Foy plays a less prominent, but important role.
Other Actresses Have More Definitive Roles
With no official list of nominees, the juries have a chance to pick from which performances most impress them. As lead actress, Penélope Cruz in Bunker will have more screen time, as does Alicia Vikander in The Echo Chamber. Meanwhile, twin sisters Rooney and Kate Mara are at the core of Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard. Posey and Foy will need to do more with less to win.
What Analysts and Forecast Models Are Saying
With all of the above taken into account, it should still be noted that Foy and Posey are at the front of the race in the minds of analysts, and indeed one wrinkle in the prices being seen is that the current highest price has gone to “Tie”. This is hard to explain; Venice has a specific rule that awards may not be shared; there’s no reason they would break that.
How to Trade This Question at Kalshi
At this point, Kalshi has received limited trading interest on this market, which will undoubtedly pick up as the festival and the handing out of awards get closer, and particularly once films, particularly Ink and Wild Horse Nine, have begun to be shown. Based on what we already know – Foy’s ability to attract awards and nominations, and her film’s prominent role in the nominations- we’d give a narrow lead to her. And we would absolutely not touch the market for a tie – it’s never happened before; it’s in the rules that it won’t happen. Why would you predict it?
| Outcome | Kalshi Chance | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | 9% | $0.14 | $0.93 |
| Claire Foy | 6% | $0.08 | $0.95 |
| Parker Posey | 6% | $0.08 | $0.95 |
Who Will Win the Coppa Volpi for Best Actress at the Venice Film Festival?
If you want to get out ahead of things and put a marker down for who you think will win, the time is now to head over to Kalshi by clicking our links and banners, and while there you could explore a range of other markets from the Venice festival.
