Lorne Michaels isn’t leaving Saturday Night Live yet, but Kalshi traders are already looking ahead. Steve Higgins and Tina Fey have pulled ahead of the other names, with Colin Jost still hanging around behind them.
Nothing has been announced by NBC. Michaels is still SNL’s executive producer heading into the September 26 premiere of Season 52, so there may be plenty of waiting. Traders are trying to get ahead of a decision with no public timetable.
Steve Higgins Leads the SNL Successor Market
Higgins is currently priced around 34%, narrowly ahead of Fey at roughly 30%. The market has generated more than $57,000 in trading volume, which is notable for a succession question with no confirmed timetable.
Higgins might look like the odd name near the top if SNL’s on-air cast is the main point of reference. Look behind the camera and he’s much less surprising.
He’s been part of the show for decades and is credited as a producer for its 2026 Emmy-nominated season. Documentary filmmaker Morgan Neville also identified Higgins and Erik Kenward as longtime staffers handling much of SNL’s day-to-day work.
There’s no learning curve to explain with Higgins. He already knows how SNL gets made each week, and decades inside that operation count for plenty when the person being replaced is Michaels.
Tina Fey Isn’t Far Behind
Fey’s case looks nothing like Higgins’. Her SNL credentials aren’t in question, but neither is her profile outside Studio 8H. That could matter if NBC wants someone who can handle more than the weekly production grind.
More importantly, Michaels has actually discussed her as a possible successor. In 2024, he said it “could easily be Tina Fey,” calling the former SNL head writer brilliant. Fey joined the writing staff in 1997, became the show’s first female head writer in 1999, and stayed until 2006.
Michaels naming Fey himself is hard to ignore, even if it happened back in 2024. Her roughly 30% market-implied probability suggests traders haven’t forgotten it either.
Not every question on prediction market platforms has a box score, poll, or economic report behind it. SNL is a good example. Prices on culture prediction markets can react to a Michaels interview, an NBC report, or even a revealing comment from someone who used to work on the show. Sometimes that’s all it takes.
Could SNL Need More Than One Successor?
There’s another wrinkle here. SNL may not replace Michaels with a single person.
Morgan Neville came away with a different view after spending extensive time around Michaels for the 2026 documentary Lorne. Maybe there isn’t a single successor. Neville has suggested Michaels’ workload could eventually be divided among two or three people. Higgins makes sense on the day-to-day production side, while a bigger public name such as Fey could fill a very different role.
One catch when looking at the numbers: don’t expect them to add up to 100%. Kalshi lists separate Yes/No contracts for each candidate. A Yes contract resolves that way if the named person is announced as Michaels’ successor before January 1, 2028.
Higgins has the highest price right now. Beyond that, very little is settled. Michaels still runs SNL, NBC hasn’t announced a replacement, and there might not even be a one-for-one successor when the time comes. The January 2028 deadline gives this market a long way to run.
