Who Will Have the Best AI at the End of 2025?

It’s been yet another dramatic year for artificial intelligence and many prediction markets sites are letting you trade contracts on which company gave us the best AI in 2025. Here we’ll get to see where the public are putting their money.

We found that Kalshi offers a perfect snapshot as to the state of play in terms of how ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and even Grok are competing to give us the ultimate AI tool. So here you’ll learn how the price movements have been shifting over 2025 to see which AI brand will come out top at the end of the year.

Best Prediction Markets Site in December

The Best AI in 2025 According to Kalshi

Kalshi offers a snapshot of what real people think about topics like the year’s best AI tool. Here are where things currently stand in this debate:

AI tool	Creator	Yes price	No Price
Gemini	Google	71¢	31¢
ChatGPT	OpenAI	30¢	77¢
Grok	xAI	6¢	95¢
Claude	Anthropic	2¢	99¢
DeepSeek	DeepSeek	1¢	n/a
Quen	Alibaba	1¢	n/a
LLaMA	Meta	1¢	n/a

Interpreting These Prediction Markets Results

The above table displays how customers at Kalshi rate the best AI product in 2025. The rankings are based on the trading price of the binary ‘yes’ and ‘no’ questions that people answer by purchasing the relevant contract.

This is because prediction markets work by letting customers trade contracts against each other, rather than the company hosting the service. As such, prediction markets offer a good barometer as to the prevailing public attitude. Here’s how the three biggest AI tools have fared:

Gemini

Google’s Gemini has had a fantastic 2025. It started the year trading at just 28¢ at Kalshi, and while it’s taken a couple of stumbles in December, is still dominating the market with a Yes trade for ‘Best AI at the end of 2025’ costing 72¢ per contract.

Much of Gemini’s success has come down to the fact that it can operate seamlessly with the Google Workspace software, and it works great with a variety of media such as text, images and video.

November saw the release of Gemini 3 which has proven to be effective in terms of raising the bar for voice recognition via new devices such as the Google Speaker. While there are still concerns about accuracy, cost and image generation, it’s on course to end the year on a high.

ChatGPT

OpenAI’s ChatGPT has had a fairly tumultuous year according to customers at Kalshi. The brand was riding high at the start of 2025 with Yes contracts costing 45¢ for the large language model being the best AI at the end of 2025.

Since then, ChatGPT has seen its price plummet to just 3¢ in November. However, the storm may have passed as the AI tool has had a mini resurgence during December with the current Yes contract costing a respectable 27¢.

ChatGPT has long been seen as being the all-rounder for AI tech. Much of this is down to the tool being capable of generating flawless writing, as well as its coding ability. However, with real concerns over hallucinations, bias and generic output, there is still plenty of work to be done that’ll hopefully be answered once ChatGPT 5.2 is unveiled this December.

Grok

Grok has also had a fairly turbulent 2025. The xAI software started the year with its Yes contracts traded for a respectable 15¢ but is closing the year at a fairly disappointing trading price of 5¢. This is all the more underwhelming considering that Grok was actually the highest rated LLM in March with Yes contracts trading at 34¢ – a good 10% higher than its rivals.

Much of Grok’s success has come down to the fact that this AI tool offers way more personality than its rivals. This is down to how it can analyze real-time data on X (formerly Twitter) and it also has much fewer restrictions in how it operates compared to its rivals. Whether those pros outweigh concerns that Grok cannot handle more complex tasks remains to be seen, but most would agree that this AI product can be plenty of fun.

A Fascinating Showdown for AI Technologies in 2025

By now you’ll understand that there is nothing like using a prediction market site to get a good overview as to what the public are thinking regarding most major topics. After all, the current trends suggest that Gemini has soared ahead of the likes of ChatGPT and Grok in terms of public perception, and it looks like Google’s AI brand is set to finish the year on a high.

While it’s best to be cautious about putting too much faith in how people trade at prediction markets sites such as Kalshi, it can prove to be an invaluable tool in understanding the popularity and perceptions of various real-world topics. So keep your eye on the price movements at Kalshi and consider signing up to make a trade on the best AI at the end of 2025.

Why We Look to Kalshi for Our Analysis

Our Kalshi review found that this is arguably the market leader for prediction markets in the US at the moment. This is because it has one of the largest customer bases as well as one of the broadest selection of markets that you can actually make your predictions on.

The brand is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and while prediction markets are currently under regulatory scrutiny, you can use the site from all US states except for Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, and Ohio.