LA has been confirmed as the host city for Victoria’s Secret’s 2026 fashion show, and Gigi Hadid was officially announced on July 16, with Paloma Elsesser joining the cast a week later as the second confirmed name on this year’s runway.
Kalshi traders have a different problem though. The Fantasy Bra hasn’t appeared on a runway since 2018 and Victoria’s Secret hasn’t said anything about bringing it back for 2026. Each contract is Yes/No on an individual candidate, so if there’s no official Fantasy Bra this year every one resolves to No regardless of who walks the runway.
Two Comeback Seasons but Still No Fantasy Bra
The show has returned but one of its signature traditions has been absent from two consecutive runway revivals now. Elsa Hosk wore a $1 million Dream Angels piece in 2018 that came just before Victoria’s Secret shelved the traditional show, but the runway came back in 2024 without it and it was absent again in 2025, so the 2026 show could be the third consecutive year it’s missing.
Why Gigi Hadid Has the Strongest Case
Gigi’s track record puts her ahead of every candidate right now if the Fantasy Bra is to return.
She’s Already Confirmed
Between all the candidates only two 2026 cast members have been officially announced, and Gigi is one of them, giving her a much stronger chance than anyone still speculative.
Consistent Runway Prominence
On the 2024 comeback show Gigi took the opening slot, and she came back for two prominent looks in 2025 with Victoria’s Secret continuing to give her the biggest runway moments.
A First-Time Milestone
Gigi has never worn the Fantasy Bra despite her long association with the brand, and a first-time honour could generate the media coverage Victoria’s Secret is looking for.
What Could Keep the Fantasy Bra Away From Gigi
Gigi’s resume is strong but the biggest risk in this market is the Fantasy Bra staying retired altogether.
The Tradition Might Stay Retired
Victoria’s Secret skipped the Fantasy Bra in both 2024 and 2025 after bringing the runway back, and there’s been no indication that 2026 will be any different. Three shows in a row without it would surely start to look less like a pause and more like a permanent decision.
Paloma Elsesser Has Brand Momentum Too
Paloma is already confirmed and she’s currently featured in the Very Sexy campaign alongside Anok Yai, Candice Swanepoel, Imaan Hammam and Abby Champion.
Heritage Picks and Newer Names
With three Fantasy Bra wearings behind her Adriana Lima is the strongest legacy candidate if she ends up on the 2026 cast.
Where Kalshi Traders Stand Right Now
None of the listed candidates are above a 6% chance and the total volume across the market sits at around $10,743 on prediction markets, so nobody in this market seems particularly convinced that any specific person is getting the Fantasy Bra this year.
How to Trade This Question on Kalshi
Each candidate has a separate Yes/No contract where the winning side pays $1 and the losing side pays $0. Multiple candidates can resolve to Yes if Victoria’s Secret names more than one official Fantasy Bra and all contracts resolve to No if the tradition stays retired.
| Potential wearer | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Reese | 6% | 6¢ | 99¢ |
| Gigi Hadid | 5% | 13¢ | 96¢ |
| Suni Lee | 5% | 6¢ | 99¢ |
Just note that prices and chance percentages come out of different calculations on Kalshi, so when volume is thin the two tend to drift apart.
Three Years and Counting Without the Fantasy Bra
Gigi Hadid is the strongest candidate but the most likely outcome might still be the one where Victoria’s Secret skips the Fantasy Bra for a third straight year. If you want to take a position on this one, click one of the banners on the page.
