The 2026 World Cup is underway on North American soil, and one question on every football fan’s mind is: “Who will lift the trophy?” Well, the tournament is still in its early stages, but fans are slowly backing their winners.
On top prediction markets, the leading contenders are Spain, France, Portugal, and England. These countries have shown superb performance in past tournaments and qualifying matches, which gave them a spot in this most prestigious football tournament. Let’s explain why these countries are contenders to lift the trophy, and how to trade the outcome on top prediction market apps like Polymarket.
An Overview of the World Cup 2026
For the first time, three countries are hosting this once-every-four-years tournament in North America. They include the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Not only that, the 2026 edition switched from 32 teams to 48, which means an additional knockout round (Round of 32) and more teams to contend for the trophy.
This format has attracted massive attention on top prediction market platforms like Polymarket. Right now, the World Cup winner market on this app has surpassed $2 billion in trading volume. The tournament has begun and will continue until July 19, 2026, when the Finals will take place.
Key Countries to Watch in the 2026 World Cup
As we mentioned earlier, 48 countries, split into 12 WC groups, are currently competing in this tournament. But based on current sentiment, four countries stand out as potential winners of this edition’s trophies. Here’s how they stack up on Polymarket.
| Country | Implied probability | Yes Contract | No contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 16% | 16¢ | 84¢ |
| France | 16% | 16¢ | 84¢ |
| Portugal | 11% | 11¢ | 89¢ |
| England | 10% | 10¢ | 90¢ |
Please note that the contract prices for each contender can shift based on their performance towards the final on July 19, 2026. We recommend checking Polymarket for the latest prices before making your prediction.
Let’s review these countries one after the other.
Spain
Spain leads the prediction market charts for a few key reasons. They were the European champions (2023 and 2024) and 2010 World Cup winners. The squad is packed with quality, like the young superstar Lamine Yamal, alongside top players like Pablo Gavi, Pedri, Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Ferran Torres, and Dani.
The country is drawn into a relatively favorable Group H with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. As such, they could easily top the table and enter the next qualifying round.
France
France won the World Cup in 2018 and nearly stole the show in 2022, making them formidable contenders in this year’s edition. Polymarket traders give this country roughly a 16% chance. The team is drawn into a relatively favorable WC group I, which includes Senegal, Iraq, and Norway. France is in top form, with star player Kylian Mbappe ready to dazzle in the tournament once more.
Portugal and England
Traders predict that Portugal and England have 11% and 10% chances of lifting the WC trophy at the current stage, respectively. Portugal is drawn in group K (vs DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia), and its squad features star players such as Ronaldo, Joao Félix, Rafael Leao, Goncalo Ramos, Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, and Joao Neves.
England has star-quality players like Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Bukayo Saka, Noni Madueke, Ollie Watkins, Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, and Morgan Rogers. The country is drawn into group L with Croatia, Ghana, and Panama.
How to Trade the World Cup Winner at Polymarket
Polymarket is a top prediction market platform that is fully regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It allows you to trade event contracts on the outcome of participating countries in this World Cup. If you have a country you want to back to win the World Cup, here’s how to do so on this site.
- Click the banners on this page to register for free at Polymarket.
- Register for an account via a crypto wallet (MetaMask, Phantom, Rabby Wallet, OKX Wallet, and Coinbase Wallet). You can also sign up via email or Google.
- The platform will require you to verify your identity by submitting documents such as your passport, driver’s license, utility bill, and a selfie.
- Once you’re verified and logged in, go to the sports predictions section and scroll a bit to see the World Cup Winner market.
- Pick your preferred country’s event contract and buy its Yes contract if you believe they’ll win the World Cup.
- Confirm your trade.
- You can watch as your preferred countries’ probabilities shift as the competition proceeds.
- Wait for the outcome when the World Cup final happens on July 19, 2026.
If your preferred country fails to win, the Yes contract settles at $0. If they eventually win, the contract resolves to $1, and you’ll get a corresponding payout.
Sign Up on Polymarket and Predict Your World Cup Winner
Polymarket’s World Cup market has seen trading volume exceed $2 billion. The platform displays each team’s Yes price based on traders’ sentiments on whether they’ll win the World Cup. Right now, Spain and France top the prediction markets. But an upset group-stage win, a star player’s injury, or another surprise contender could shake the probabilities.
To get involved, head over to Polymarket via our on-page banners and trade on the team you think will lift the trophy this summer.
