Each year, People’s magazine crowns a man the title of Sexiest Man Alive. The award is usually given towards the end of the year, so it’s time for fans to predict who’s set to win in 2026.
Prediction market sites like Kalshi are giving people the chance to forecast who they think will win the title. So, with Bad Bunny having taken an early lead, we take a look at the potential winners to see what the odds are. First, let’s take a look at what analysts are saying about the potential winners.
What Analysts and Forecast Models Are Saying
Each year, People’s magazine awards a man the title of Sexiest Man Alive, with the potential winners being a mix of actors, athletes, and musicians. Quite often, the choices are controversial, causing a lot of discussion on whether the favorites deserve to win, and fans petitioning for their favorites to win the title. Unlike other awards, People’s Sexiest Man Alive isn’t chosen by a public vote. Instead, it’s decided by the magazine’s editors. As such, analysts rely on prediction market sites and headlines to forecast who’s most likely to win.
Across most forecasting models, there’s a consensus that Bad Bunny will win, as he took an early lead. That said, Michael B. Jordan is another contender who’s been consistently close behind. Other names on the list include Pedro Pascal, Harry Styles, and Timothee Chalamet, although their ranking is considerably lower.
An Overview of Factors That Could Influence the Winner
People’s magazine has never shared the official criteria for judging the winner. That said, it’s widely suspected that the winner is driven by public appeal and cultural relevance rather than just their physical appearance. Just like many cultural predictions, the deciding winner isn’t always black and white. Here’s a list of key factors that could decide the winner:
- A Major Hit – Releasing a chart-topping song, starring in a hit film, or landing a role in a big television show can all boost a celebrity’s chances.
- Positive Press – If a celebrity is having a wave of positive media coverage, this could boost the momentum over someone who’s getting bad press.
- Popularity – Fandom, social media engagement, and viral videos can make People’s editors take notice of a particular celebrity more than another.
- Charisma – People’s magazine often likes its winner to be funny, relatable, and humble.
Who the Kalshi Traders Are Currently Predicting to Take the Title
In February, Bad Bunny was predicted to have 14% chance of winning, while Michael B. Jordan was following behind at 7%. They have both stayed pretty consistent throughout, with Michael B. Jordan even taking a slight lead in June. Since then, the top 5 has shifted again, with the following celebrities being forecasted to be the top contenders:
| Potential Winner | Chance | Yes Contract | No Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 28% | 30¢ | 72¢ |
| Connor Storrie | 22% | 21¢ | 84¢ |
| David Corenswet | 18% | 12¢ | 93¢ |
| Michael B. Jordan | 13% | 15¢ | 89¢ |
| Pedro Pascal | 8% | 7¢ | 96¢ |
Final Thoughts on the Potential Winner of Sexiest Man Alive 2026
As you can see, Bad Bunny has been a consistent favorite among analysts and forecast models since earlier this year. While he did drop off slightly in June, he gained momentum and once again secured the top spot. Now that we are over halfway through the year, there are a few more months to go before People’s magazine crowns the Sexiest Man Alive 2026. With the previous winners often being crowned due to positive media coverage and social media engagement, anything can happen between now and the end of the year. Want to have your say? Why not tap the promotional banners on this page to join Kalshi to start trading?
