Ohio State leads Kalshi’s market for the 2027 College Football National Championship. Barely.
As of October 6, traders give the Buckeyes a 17% chance of winning it all. Georgia sits right behind at 16%, with Texas at 13%. Nearly $49 million has already been traded on the championship market.
Texas makes that order hard to ignore. The Longhorns are undefeated, ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, and have already beaten Ohio State 24-23. Still, traders prefer the Buckeyes. It’s exactly the sort of disagreement that makes prediction market sites useful alongside traditional rankings.
Ohio State Leads Kalshi’s National Championship Market
A 4-1 team sitting above several undefeated contenders looks strange at first. Ohio State’s loss explains a lot of it. The Buckeyes fell 24-23 on the road against the team now ranked No. 1.
Julian Sayin hasn’t given traders much reason to panic, either. Five games in, he’s sitting at 1,530 passing yards, a 72.5% completion rate, and a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Then came 324 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-14 road win over Iowa.
Here’s where 17% gets uncomfortable. Ohio State visits defending champion Indiana on October 17, then still has USC and Oregon waiting. A one-percentage-point market lead can disappear quickly with that schedule.
Georgia and Texas Are Right Behind
Georgia sitting just one point behind Ohio State makes sense. Maybe more than the 5-0 record does.
Gunner Stockton has completed 75.5% of his passes, with 1,049 yards and a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Great numbers. They’re about to get some context. No. 2 Georgia visits No. 6 Alabama on October 10.
Then there’s Texas. No. 1 in the country. Undefeated. Already beat Ohio State.
Somehow, the Longhorns are still third on Kalshi at 13%. They received 61 of 70 first-place votes in the latest AP poll, which makes the four-point gap behind Ohio State especially striking.
The remaining schedule helps explain the discount. Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M are all still coming. A 13% contract isn’t really asking whether Texas looks like the country’s best team today. It’s asking whether the Longhorns can survive all of that and still finish the job in January.
Which Teams Could Challenge the Favorites?
Three teams don’t make a title race. Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama and defending champion Indiana haven’t lost yet, either.
Indiana is especially hard to brush aside. The Hoosiers went 16-0 last season and have now won 21 straight games.
Miami just beat Clemson 41-13. Notre Dame has won 15 straight.
Those aren’t distant long shots hanging around the market. They’re undefeated teams with a real argument.
Nobody has separated from the pack yet, and traders won’t have to wait long for better evidence.
Georgia gets Alabama next. Then Ohio State walks into Bloomington to face an Indiana team that hasn’t lost in 21 games. Those are the kinds of matchups that move sports prediction markets, especially when only four percentage points currently separate first-place Ohio State from third-place Texas.
