Five NFL teams are still looking for their first win. Kalshi traders don’t think they’re equally likely to stay at the bottom.
Miami is the clear concern. As of October 4, the Dolphins were priced at a 51% chance to finish with the NFL’s worst regular-season record, compared with 24% for Tennessee. Both have since slipped to 0-4. The records match. Not much else does.
Houston, Tampa Bay, and the Los Angeles Chargers are also 0-4. How those teams have lost makes the picture much less even.
Why Are the Dolphins Favored to Finish With the Worst Record?
Miami has scored just 46 points in four games, or 11.5 per game, while allowing 101. Its minus-55-point differential is the worst in the NFL. Among the other winless teams, the Chargers are next at minus-39.
That’s the problem with Miami’s 0-4 start. This isn’t a decent team repeatedly losing coin-flip games. A minus-55 point differential suggests something much worse, and it’s a big reason that the 51% Kalshi price doesn’t look as extreme as it first sounds.
Kalshi also gives the Dolphins only a 24% chance of beating Cincinnati in Week 5. Another loss would leave Miami at 0-5.
That’s a huge number this early in the season. NFL prediction markets still have 13 games of uncertainty to price in, yet Kalshi traders are already giving Miami better than a coin-flip chance of finishing alone at the bottom.
Could the Titans Finish With the NFL’s Worst Record?
Tennessee at 24% is where the market gets more interesting. A 0-4 record makes the Titans look every bit as broken as Miami, but the scoreboard says otherwise.
They’ve allowed 83 points to Miami’s 101. Their minus-28 point differential is still bad, certainly. But there’s a pretty big difference between losing and getting run over.
The offense remains the bigger concern. Tennessee has scored 55 points and ranks 32nd in yards per game at 261.3. Cam Ward has thrown for 726 yards, while Tony Pollard leads the rushing attack with 221.
Tennessee gets an immediate chance to change that price against fellow 0-4 Houston in Week 5. Kalshi gives the Titans a 27% chance to win, with Houston at 73%.
Which Other NFL Teams Could Finish Last?
Houston might be the most misleading 0-4 team of the group. The Texans have scored 84 points, compared with Miami’s 46, and carried fourth-quarter leads in three of those four losses.
Same record, very different problem. Houston hasn’t been good enough to finish games. Miami hasn’t consistently been close enough for that to matter.
The Chargers are harder to ignore. They’ve been outscored 106-67 and face Kansas City immediately after Denver. Kalshi currently gives Los Angeles a 38% chance against the Broncos and just 21% against the Chiefs.
The standings alone don’t help much here. Five teams are 0-4, which is why Kalshi’s sports predictions become more useful when the records stop separating anyone.
Miami at 51% still looks aggressive with most of the season left. It’s also defensible. The Dolphins have scored 46 points and allowed 101. Tennessee hasn’t been nearly as bad by point differential, while Houston’s 0-4 record hides several games it had a real chance to win.
So Miami isn’t simply first because it’s winless. There are four other teams that can say that. The 51% price is really a judgment on just how bad those four losses have looked.
