KATSEYE will perform at the 2026 Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show, but Kalshi traders are also predicting which individual members will take the stage.
The show takes place in Los Angeles on Sunday, October 18th at 7:30 pm ET. KATSEYE is part of an all-women music lineup that also includes Megan Thee Stallion, Tate McRae, and Megan Moroney.
KATSEYE is currently performing as a four-member group, however, with Sophia Laforteza and Manon Bannerman both on hiatus, which has created a clear split in Kalshi’s market.
Megan, Daniela, Lara, and Yoonchae Are the Favorites
The four active KATSEYE members are Megan Skiendiel, Daniela Avanzini, Lara Raj, and Yoonchae Jeung.
Kalshi traders strongly expect these four to appear at the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show. Megan is currently one of the strongest choices, with Kalshi putting her at a 97% chance of appearing, followed by Yoonchae at 93%, while recent market data has Daniela and Lara at 90%.
The simple reason for those high numbers is that the members are currently performing together. KATSEYE continued as a four-member group during recent appearances after both Manon and Sophia stepped away.
The quartet has also been preparing for the North American leg of the WILDWORLD TOUR, which begins just days before the Victoria’s Secret show.
Sophia Is Very Unlikely to Perform
Sophia’s situation has become much clearer since Kalshi opened the market. She began a hiatus in August to focus on her health and well-being. On October 8th, HYBE x Geffen announced that Sophia will return to KATSEYE in the first week of January 2027.
More importantly for this market, the announcement says she won’t take part in the North American tour or promotional activities for the rest of 2026. This effectively rules out an appearance at the October 18 fashion show unless plans unexpectedly change.
It also shows how quickly prediction markets can move when new information appears.
What About Manon?
Manon Bannerman’s appearance is also seen as a long shot by Kalshi traders, recently sitting at only 2%. She has been away from KATSEYE since February, when her hiatus was announced due to health and well-being reasons
Unlike Sophia, there isn’t currently an announced date for Manon’s return. KATSEYE has continued without her throughout much of 2026, including major performances such as Coachella and the group’s recent Saturday Night Live appearance. That explains why Kalshi traders currently see a return on October 18th as unlikely.
You can find similar entertainment markets to trade by checking out current culture predictions.
How Does the Kalshi KATSEYE Market Work?
Each member has a separate Yes or No contract, so traders aren’t choosing just one member, and several contracts can resolve Yes.
Under Kalshi’s rules, a member generally needs to actively contribute to a musical performance. That can include singing, backing vocals, rapping, or playing an instrument.
The rules also cover guest appearances, joint performances, and certain official pre-recorded performances.
Kalshi can even settle a contract “Yes” based on an official announcement that a member will perform. If that person later withdraws, the original announcement can still count under the market rules.
With less than a week until the show, the current picture is fairly clear. Megan, Daniela, Lara, and Yoonchae are the four names to watch.
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