Readers who like exploring worlds of fantasy, mystical creatures, and surreal phenomena, get ready to predict the book that will win the 2026 National Book Award for Fiction.
Kalshi, a US prediction market, launched the exact “National Book Award for Fiction” market on its platform on September 23. It’s relatively new, but it gives you 10 books and writers to pick from and one favorite.
How Big Is the National Book Award?
The National Book Award is one of the most widely respected literary prizes. The award categories include Fiction, Nonfiction, Poetry, Young People’s Literature, and Translated Literature.
It also comes with the three main types of recognition and prizes:
- Lifetime Achievement Honors
- With the Medal for Distinguished Contribution to American Letters (DCAL)
- With the Literarian Award for Outstanding Service to the American Literary Community
- Winners: receiving $10,000, a bronze medal, and a bronze sculpture
- Finalists: granted $1,000 and a bronze medal
Since you cannot vote for your favorite book or artist, you can use prediction market platforms such as Kalshi to predict which book will win the Fiction prize. It lets you buy and sell contracts for both “Yes” and “No” outcomes, currently with 10 books and their writers featured as potential winners for Fiction.
How to Make Predictions for the National Book Award for Fiction
Kalshi is anything but limited or mundane, and, given the culture markets (music, TV, cinema, books) it offers, it’s one of the best brands in the culture predictions category.
Therefore, this is how to start trading on your most beloved book and writer for the National Awards for Fiction:
- Go to Kalshi.com and create an account.
- Sign in and complete KYC verification.
- Fund your profile.
- Find the market under the Culture category or type its name in the search bar.
- Choose your favorite book and how much you want to spend on the “Yes” or “No” market and make your purchase(s).
We’re delighted to show you 10 books in this market, along with their artists, prices, and chances of winning the award. Note that the percentages and prices for most contenders aren’t fully developed yet because this market is only around 3 weeks old, but you can still enjoy trading.
| Book & Writer | Chance | “Yes” Price | “No” Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paradiso 17 by Hannah Lillith Assadi | 11% | $.0.88 | $.0.99 |
| The Disappearers by Marlon James | <1% | $.0.01 | N/A |
| Passengers by Alexander Maksik | <1% | $.0.46 | N/A |
| Python’s Kiss by Louise Erdrich | <1% | $.0.73 | N/A |
| Red Ants by Kimberly Blaeser | <1% | $.0.37 | N/A |
| The Renovation by Kenan Orhan | <1% | $.0.45 | N/A |
| Beginning Middle End by Valeria Luiselli | N/A | $.0.87 | $.0.99 |
| Dey by Edwidge Danticat | N/A | $.0.82 | $.0.99 |
| Mad Eden by Morgan Thomas | N/A | $.0.91 | $.0.99 |
| Pretend You’re Dead and I Carry You by Julian Delgado Lopera | N/A | $.0.91 | $.0.99 |
| The “tie” outcome | N/A | N/A | N/A |
You can explore markets for other National Book Award genres, cultural events like the Oscars, or any topic, including politics, economics, and sports, all available at Kalshi.
