After a few years of speculation, Elon Musk’s SpaceX looks set to go public in 2026. This will be one of the most valuable IPOs in history, and the choice of Bank to lead the launch is a big decision.
Currently, prediction market Kalshi has five major banks as the top nominees to take SpaceX public, including major players Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley, plus slightly less well-known Citigroup and Bank of America. Each has an implied probability of over 80% and offers something different. Stick with us as we explore all of these factors in depth.
SpaceX’s Public Launch – Background and Overview
After remaining private for more than 20 years, Elon Musk’s company SpaceX is finally expected to go public in 2026. There are a number of reasons why this is happening now. Following the merger of SpaceX and Elon Musk’s AI company xAI, SpaceX is cash-hungry and looking for investment for new ambitious plans, including rockets to Mars and Starlink satellites. There’s also a wider public appetite for big tech IPOs, so SpaceX wants to get in on the ground floor to ride this wave.
When it goes public, SpaceX is expected to launch with a value of more than $1.5 trillion, which would place it among the most valuable companies in the world and one of the most interesting economy predictions of recent years.
Top Contenders to Take SpaceX Public
Currently, there are five main contenders who may take SpaceX public in 2026:
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley has a proven track record of managing high-value IPOs and a strong interest in tech companies. This should mean that Morgan Stanley is able to connect SpaceX with investors who understand the appeal of space technology and will invest quickly.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs has strong relationships with mega global institutions, so it may be able to attract larger investors quickly. They also excel at planning strategic growth for IPOs beyond the initial investment.
Bank of America
Bank of America has strong corporate ties, which could support SpaceX when it comes to mergers and acquisitions. They also have a strong distribution network, so they can make sure that share prices remain stable.
JPMorgan Chase
A strong distribution network means that JPMorgan Chase will be able to spread shares internationally, satisfying the likely international interest in SpaceX.
CitiGroup
Although not mentioned as often as the big four above, Citigroup is a contender for the SpaceX IPO. They have a solid track record with tech companies, but don’t have the same established expertise as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. They also lack some name recognition compared to the other banks.
Key Factors That Could Impact Which Bank Takes SpaceX Public
There’s no official word on which bank will take SpaceX public, but we do know that there will be several key factors to consider:
A Proven Track Record
As we’ve mentioned, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been involved in taking mega tech IPOs public, such as Facebook. Morgan Stanley also has a historic relationship with Elon Musk, including previous financing of his other projects.
Elon Musk’s Unpredictability
Previously, Elon Musk has strongly resisted making SpaceX public. This has reportedly been due to wanting to retain greater control over SpaceX’s objectives without having to answer shareholders. Therefore, it’s possible that Musk will stall this decision, or change his mind about the bank chosen, up until the last minute.
More Than One Bank Could Be Involved
It’s possible that at least two banks will underwrite the SpaceX IPO. This helps to spread risk, increase the number of possible shareholders and handle the logistical and administrative challenges of the likely demand.
What Analysts and Forecast Models Are Saying
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have worked with Musk previously, including on Tesla. This gives them an advantage in understanding Musk’s business philosophy and strategy. These banks also have a strong balance sheet, so they would be able to absorb some of the risk if SpaceX shares flop due to Musk’s personal involvement or market volatility.
How to Trade This Question at Kalshi
If you want to trade on this question, our recommended choice of prediction markets is Kalshi. Here’s a quick step-by-step guide to making your pick:
- Hit the banners on this page to visit Kalshi.
- Sign up or log in to your existing account.
- Go to the ‘Companies’ section to locate this contract.
- Choose your Yes or No contract and lock in your picks.
The table below shows the current market prices at Kalshi for each of the five front-running banks that could take SpaceX public:
| Bank | Chance | ‘Yes’ price | ‘No’ price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 90% | $0.93 | $0.10 |
| Bank of America | 89% | $0.90 | $0.11 |
| Goldman Sachs | 91% | $0.91 | $0.10 |
| JPMorgan Chase | 84% | $0.87 | $0.17 |
| Citigroup | 86% | $0.88 | $0.14 |
Conclusion – Kalshi Offers Leading Picks on Who Will Take SpaceX Public
Currently, Kalshi has five banks as leading candidates to take Elon Musk’s SpaceX public. All are sitting at 80%, reflecting the market’s uncertainty on this issue. At the moment, Morgan Stanley sits in the pole position, which ties into the bank’s strong credentials with tech IPOs. However, it’s likely this market will continue to fluctuate as a possible SpaceX public launch nears.
Ready to make your pick? Hit the banners on this page to join Kalshi today.
