You’ve seen the news, the memes, the jokes and the hard truths. Amid political controversy surrounding Ed Sheeran’s Loop Tour, as many as two dates were canceled within three weeks.
In September of 2026, a conflict arose between Ed Sheeran and Macklemore when the American rapper sent political messages, leading the promoters to remove him from Ed Sheeran’s tour.
The whole situation is still ongoing, and the “Ed Sheeran Loop Tour · Number of Dates Canceled” market appeared on Kalshi, one of the most popular prediction markets in the US.
Let’s discuss this market on Kalshi and try to estimate the number of canceled tour dates.
Background
In September 2026, Macklemore was part of the English singer-songwriter’s US Loop Tour. He performed his protest song, “Hind’s Hall,” and held a flag bearing political statements, acts he repeated the day after.
While Sheeran argued that he wasn’t taking sides in the political conflict Macklemore was referring to, many of his supporters, along with others, scorned him for removing Macklemore from the tour.
Sheeran later apologized to fans and said that Macklemore’s removal was the promoter’s decision.
Over the course of 2-3 weeks, this controversy was taken a step further, as two dates of the Loop Tour, September 25 and September 26 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, were canceled.
That’s when Kalshi jumped in and made things interesting by launching a market to predict the exact number of tour dates that will be canceled. The market officially lasts until December 11, 2026, when Sheeran’s tour ends.
Current Outcomes and Prices at Kalshi + Our Opinion
At the moment, Kalshi offers the “Ed Sheeran Loop Tour · Number of Dates Canceled” market among its culture predictions, with outcomes for canceled tour dates ranging from 3 to 17. Here are the top five outcomes and their prices:
| Outcomes | “Yes” Price | “No” Price |
|---|---|---|
| At least 3 dates canceled | $0.39 | $0.74 |
| At least 4 dates canceled | $0.27 | $0.78 |
| At least 5 dates canceled | $0.20 | $0.88 |
| At least 6 dates canceled | $0.26 | $0.86 |
| At least 7 dates canceled | $0.25 | $0.90 |
As the number of dates increases, the chances of them getting canceled decrease. This is not only because of probability, but also because the conflict naturally falls silent as time passes.
Another, and most important, reason is that Sheeran issued an official apology to fans and everyone else and explained that he realized where his mistake lay.
That said, the market price shows that even the rough chance of one additional date getting canceled is around 36%, and it continues to drop.
That’s why we believe this tour will have only one or two dates canceled, after which the situation will go black.
Be it as it may, it’s never easy to predict controversies on prediction market platforms. As always, we advise you to trade with a strict budget, stay up to date with any new information, and take things slowly.
