If you’ve heard about Robinhood event contracts, you might think it’s just another way to place sports picks. It’s not. These contracts live inside Robinhood’s app and let you trade real-world outcomes using a simple yes or no format for a fixed payout.
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Event contracts are regulated differently from anything you’d find at a traditional sportsbook. You’re not betting, you’re trading derivatives. And that’s a big distinction. From sports outcomes to political events, Robinhood routes these trades through KalshiEX, a federally regulated exchange, which means federal oversight applies alongside specific state laws. We’ve tested it ourselves, and here’s how it really works.
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For years, Robinhood has been known as the app that made stock and crypto trading accessible. It launched back in 2013 with a mission to “democratize finance”, and whether you’re into that tagline or not, there’s no denying they changed the game.
At first, it was just stocks and ETFs. Then came options, crypto, and now event contracts, which fully rolled out in 2025 through a dedicated section in the app called
Prediction Markets. These aren’t casino-style picks or fantasy games. And Robinhood isn’t operating the markets themselves; they’re acting as a broker routing orders to KalshiEX, a federally regulated exchange.
Because these are financial instruments regulated by the CFTC, they function similarly to options or futures. You are trading on the probability of real-world events like economic data, sports, or
Robinhood election predictions.
What Is an Event Contract?
At first, it looks deceptively simple. You’re trading contracts that settle at $1 if correct, and $0 if not. But once we got into it, we saw there’s more to it than that.
An example of a Robinhood event contract is “Will Ohio State win on Saturday?” If you think yes, you can buy that contract at whatever the current market price is, let’s say $0.63. That price means the market thinks there’s a 63% chance it happens.
If you buy a contract at $0.63 and the event occurs, your contract settles at $1.00. This results in a $0.37 profit ($1.00 settlement – $0.63 purchase price) before
Robinhood fees.
If the event doesn’t occur, the contract settles at $0, and you’ll lose only what you paid. Each contract is fully cash-backed, so you can’t lose more than your entry price. There’s no leverage, and no margin.
Price = Probability
Here’s a look at what contract prices actually translate to:
Contract Price
Implied Probability
$0.25
25% chance
$0.50
50% chance
$0.75
75% chance
$0.95
95% chance
To put it simply, the closer to $1, the more likely the market thinks the outcome is going to happen.
How Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub Works
The trading itself lives inside the Prediction Markets hub on Robinhood’s app. It’s not available to everyone by default; you’ll need to apply for a Robinhood Derivatives account first to access these features.
Access & Approval
You’ll find the hub by tapping:
Investing → Prediction markets, or by just searching “event contract.”
If you haven’t done so already, Robinhood will prompt you to apply for approval to open a Derivatives account. This involves a standard set of questions regarding your trading experience. Once that’s squared away, the full set of active markets unlocks.
Placing a Trade
Robinhood sends your trade as an IOC (Immediate-or-Cancel) limit order into Kalshi’s market. That means:
If your limit price is available, the order fills immediately
If not, it cancels automatically
You’ll see your estimated total and fees before confirming
You can also sell your contract before the event settles to lock in gains or cut losses, depending on market liquidity. If you hold it to expiry, you get a payout of $1 or $0 depending on the outcome.
What Sports Markets Are Live?
Robinhood’s Prediction Markets hub has expanded its sports outcomes significantly since early 2025. These are yes/no markets that often remain tradeable during events until the listed expiry, allowing for real-time position adjustments. Here’s what we’ve seen so far from our
Robinhood prediction markets review:
Pro Football (NFL)
These were among the first sports markets to show up. Contracts focus on outcomes like “Will [Team] win on Sunday?” or “Will [Team] make the playoffs?” Availability depends on your state, but this has been a consistent category.
College Football
We’ve seen similar markets around major Saturday matchups, like conference titles, bowl outcomes, or basic win/loss scenarios. Note that some states prohibit trading on in-state college teams. These typically close before kickoff.
March Madness & NCAA Tournaments
Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets hub right around the 2025 tournament. Contracts covered game outcomes, Final Four chances, and other high-level tournament scenarios. These markets see some of the highest liquidity on the platform.
Golf Majors
There have been contracts for major golf events. Things like “Will [Player] make the cut?” or “Will [Player] finish top 10?” These come and go with the tournament calendar and aren’t always available, but they’ve appeared more than once.
A Note About State Availability
While Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange, some Robinhood sports prediction contracts are restricted in states like New Jersey and Nevada due to local regulatory pushback. Robinhood and Kalshi continually engage with regulators, but availability can change quickly, so always check the in-app markets list to see what’s available in your current location.
What You Need to Know About Fees
Robinhood fees directly affect your net profits, especially if you’re trading contracts priced closer to $1. High-probability outcomes might look tempting, but once you factor in costs, the profit margin shrinks fast.
Robinhood fees:
Robinhood charges a flat $0.01 per contract, per side. That means you’ll pay it when you open a position, and again if you decide to close before settlement. If you hold your contract until it expires/settles, you’re only charged the entry fee.
Kalshi Exchange fees:
This is where it’s a bit more variable. Kalshi’s exchange fees depend on the price of the contract you’re buying. Lower-priced contracts come with smaller fees, while higher-priced ones cost a bit more. You will always see the “Estimated Total” (including all fees) before you swipe to trade.
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Tips for Trading Event Contracts
We’ve been using Robinhood’s event contracts hub long enough to spot a few patterns. Here are some things we noticed that helped us avoid mistakes.
Stick to mid-priced contracts 💵
Contracts priced in the $0.30 to $0.70 range tend to offer the best reward-to-risk ratio, especially after fees. In very high-probability trades (e.g., $0.95), the $0.01 fee can represent 20% of your total potential profit.
Use limit orders 🛑
Market orders don’t exist here, as Robinhood uses limit orders to ensure price protection. We’ve found that being patient and placing a limit that reflects what you’re actually willing to pay avoids overpaying in markets with lower liquidity.
Avoid last-minute trades ⏳
Waiting until five minutes before kickoff sounds efficient, but liquidity can dry up late. Some contracts become untradeable toward the end, especially in lower-interest matchups. If you want flexibility, enter earlier while the order books are still active.
Always check the contract rules 📜
We learned that not every contract settles the same way. Some get voided for things like weather delays or forfeits. The full contract specifications are always listed under the “Rules” tab—read them before you commit.
Market close times aren’t always kickoff ⏰
Some contracts close earlier than expected, even an hour or two before the event starts. Always check the specific market’s expiration time so you don’t miss your entry.
A Different Way to Participate on Sports
Robinhood event contracts aren’t about odds or bonuses. They’re structured, fixed-outcome trades that sit inside a platform you probably already use. Just pick yes or no on real events, with clear payouts and transparent fees. It’s not the same as betting, and it’s not fantasy.
But if you’ve ever looked at a game and thought, “That’s going to happen”, this gives you a way to act on it using a regulated financial product. Availability depends on your state, and fees do matter. But if the Prediction Markets tab is live for you, it’s worth giving it a go. If you’re ready to sign up, use the banners on this page to get started today.
Robinhood Event Contracts FAQ’s
No. These are CFTC-regulated derivatives (event contracts), not state-licensed sports bets. While the subject matter is sports, the legal structure is that of a financial exchange.
No. They settle after Kalshi verifies and finalises the outcome. Funds usually appear in your account shortly after verification, though bank transfers follow standard schedules.
Your state may have restrictions in place. As of 2026, some states have not yet approved the trading of sports-based event contracts.
Yes, provided there is an active buyer or seller on the other side of the trade (liquidity). Otherwise, you may need to hold to resolution.
No. You’ll see the breakdown of Robinhood and Kalshi’s fees on the order preview screen before submitting your order.
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