Before we get started, it’s important to note that Polymarket odds don’t exist in the conventional sense. Instead Polymarket’s prediction markets display prices that represent real-time probabilities shown as percentages.
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We’ve put together this guide to explain why you should look for prices rather than odds, and how you can buy shares based on those prices. You can even sell them before the event ends. We’ll also provide a quick comparison with regular betting to help you see the differences between betting odds and prediction market probabilities.
If you’re interested in
Polymarket sports markets
or any other prediction market on offer, you need to know how it works. Prediction markets are based on shares, also known as contracts. You’ll always have two contracts indicating the yes or no outcomes that could occur. You then need to consider whether you believe the event will happen or not, and decide whether to purchase contracts accordingly.
Focusing on Yes or No Probabilities
Let’s look at a sporting example to illustrate how this works. The LA Clippers are going to play the Phoenix Suns. You will see two shares indicating the current probability of each team winning. For example, the LA Clippers may have a share price of $0.35 while the Phoenix Suns have a share price of $0.65. This means the market believes there is a 35% chance of the LA Clippers winning the match. Conversely, there is a 65% chance of the Phoenix Suns winning the match. These figures show the Polymarket odds of each event occurring, as determined and believed to be true by those buying shares.
If you believe the LA Clippers are going to win, you must decide how many shares to purchase at $0.35 each. If they lose, you will lose those funds. If they win, you will receive $1 per contract. So, if you bought 100 shares for a total of $35, you would receive 100 shares paid at a total of $100, or $1 each. This would be a profit of $65.
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You Can Buy Shares in Prediction Markets and Sell Them Too
As more people buy shares on
prediction markets
– based on either yes or no predictions – the prices for those options may change. This occurs with regular betting as well. However, you will notice one key difference – you can decide to sell your shares whenever you wish. You may decide that you can achieve a better outcome by doing this, rather than waiting until the event ends, when you may be on the wrong side of the result.
Polymarket Prediction Markets Vs Sports Betting
While we’re focusing on sports predictions for the purposes of this example, you can apply the same factors to
Polymarket election markets and other areas of interest. To help you understand how they differ, we’ve compiled a table containing the main points of note.
Polymarket
Sports Betting
Peer-to-peer prediction markets
Standard betting options
Probabilities are displayed as share prices (decimals of $1)
Odds set by the provider
Buy and sell Yes/No shares against other traders on an open market
Place bets against the house
Pros and Cons of Polymarket Odds
Since
Polymarket is legal
in most US states, it provides you with a great alternative to traditional betting – particularly if you live in a state that does not allow online sports betting, for example. We’ve compiled a few of the key pros and cons to consider here. As a leader in the prediction market arena, we found many advantages to consider.
Pros and Cons of Polymarket Odds
Plenty of potential markets
Format based on shares
Make yes/no predictions
Markets cover sports, politics, and more
Can be complex for beginners
Probability Replaces Traditional Polymarket Odds
Prediction markets represent a fundamental shift away from traditional sportsbooks, replacing static house-set options with dynamic, peer-to-peer asset trading. Understanding that Polymarket odds are actually real-time probabilities represented as share prices is the key to unlocking the platform’s true potential.
By treating event contracts as fluctuating financial assets, you gain far greater flexibility over your positions, allowing you to actively trade sentiment, hedge your risks, and execute early exits to lock in profits or minimize losses long before a market settles.
Polymarket Odds FAQs
Yes, it operates in the US as a prediction markets website, covering predictions on sports, economics, elections, and many other relevant and current topics of interest.
Polymarket users directly influence contract prices based on supply, demand, and trading sentiment. For example, a “Yes” share price sits at 75 cents if the open market collectively calculates a 75% probability that the event will happen. Prices fluctuate freely as new data becomes available.
Yes, the Polymarket service is fully available in Florida.
Prediction markets focus on the probability of specific events happening, i.e., one team is more likely to win a match against a rival team. There are yes and no options for each market. Both will add up to 100%. You can buy shares for Yes or No, depending on what you think might happen. If you are correct, you will receive $1 per share bought.
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