As it stands, prediction markets are legal in Hawaii, but the landscape is quite complex and could change at any time. Hawaii lawmakers would like to ban them, but they face the same issues as other states have.
Prediction market sites like Kalshio are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which puts their legality under federal control. This is in contrast to online sports wagering, where states have the power to determine legislation. As a result, any state ban that Hawaii lawmakers impose will be legally challenged by Federal authorities and the prediction market operators.
The Best Prediction Market Sites in Hawaii in September
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in Hawaii? A Brief Overview
Despite everything that we’ve said above, the bottom line is that right now, prediction markets are legal in Hawaii. As long as you are over 1and create a fully verified and AML-compliant account at a CFTC-regulated exchange, you can trade event contracts for prediction markets.
The reason why these sports and
politics prediction market apps
are legal in a state with very strict anti-gambling laws is that they don’t offer gambling. Prediction markets allow you to buy and sell event contracts for future outcomes, including sports and political events.
As a result, the model is more akin to futures trading and therefore, falls under the Federal Jurisdiction’s CFTC, rather than state gambling authorities. However, the same risks that apply to gambling still apply to prediction markets; you can win money if you make correct predictions, and lose money if you’re wrong.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
Now that we’ve covered the legal question, here is our expert summary of the pros and cons of prediction market trading in Hawaii:
Pros and Cons
Prediction markets are legal in Hawaii for now
Use platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com
Trade event contracts for sports and other outcomes
A new and emerging market
Possible legal challenges are forthcoming
How Prediction Markets Event Contracts Work in HI
Most prediction markets contain binary event contracts, where you have to essentially answer a Yes/No question. However, sacral and multiple-choice event contracts are also common, especially on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Here is a breakdown of the basics:
Event contract prices:
Event contracts are always priced between $0.01 and $0.99 to reflect the real-time market probability of the relevant outcome.
Market probability:
You’ll always see the real-time market probability of each outcome displayed on a prediction market. As these platforms match traders and don’t take bets at fixed odds, the probabilities are transparent and aren’t juiced or manipulated in any way.
Payouts:
Once the market is resolved, the correct prediction event contracts close at $1.00, with the counterparts closing at $0.00. This means that you’ll receive a payout with a profit if your prediction was correct, and you’ll lose all the money staked if you are incorrect.
Example of a Prediction Market
Below, we’ve provided an example of how a sports prediction market would look for the NBA Champions League winner ahead of the finals series:
🏀 Teams
📈 Chance
✅ Yes
❌ No
Knicks
53%
$0.53
$0.47
Spurs:
47%
$0.47
$0.53
The Top 3 Prediction Market Apps in Hawaii
Prediction markets are extremely risky by nature, so it’s vitally important that you get fully verified to trade on a CFTC-regulated financial exchange. With that in mind, here is our expert assessment of the top three brands on our
list of prediction market sites
for HI users:
📈 Prediction market site
🧑⚖ CFTC regulation
💲 Minimum deposit
📱 Mobile trading app
Polymarket
Yes ✅
$2
Yes ✅
Kalshi
Yes ✅
$1
Yes ✅
Crypto.com
Yes ✅
$1
Yes ✅*
*Android app only under the brand name OG. No iOS version is available at the time of writing.
Polymarket – The Best Prediction Market Site in Hawaii
Excellent trading coverage
Powerful mobile app
Speedy deposits and withdrawals
Peer-to-peer exchange
Watertight security provisions
Steep learning curve
Visit Polymarket
Polymarket is the best prediction markets site for Hawaii-based traders of all experience levels. If you’re completely new to this type of trading, the “How it works” guide is always available via a button at the top of your screen. This comes in the form of a pop-up that you can click through to get a full understanding of the process in bite-sized chunks.
For the more experienced traders among you, there are plenty of real-time market tracker tools, such as the live feed of all active trades for each market. Additionally, there are many fast-paced micro markets, like the 5-minute BTC.
As with all CFTC-regulated exchanges, you must be over 18 to sign up and trade here if you reside in Hawaii. To trade here and get fully verified, you’ll need to upload your photo ID, proof of residency with a HI address, your SSN, and a selfie.
Kalshi – The First Prediction Market in HI
Accessible across the US
Simple to use
Explore niche and mainstream markets
Integrated prediction tools
Limited ongoing bonus offers
Visit Kalshi
Kalshi is effectively the platform that invented prediction market trading and first brought it to the US shores. It also remains one of the best and has the most diverse market selection. You can trade on everything from Bitcoin price rises to sports game results, and what Trump will say in his next speech.
For experienced traders, there are real-time trackers, complex tools, and a detailed limit order function to protect you against negative slippage. While the platform isn’t the best for beginners, it isn’t so complex that you’ll find yourself completely lost.
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and accepts users in Hawaii aged 18+. You can complete full verification with a photo ID, your SSN, and bank account details. The downside of Kalshi’s trailblazer status is that if a Hawaii state ban does come, Kalshi will be the first to go.
Crypto.com – The Lowest Event Contract Fees in Hawaii
Level-Up Rewards available
Welcome offer for standard trading
Predict future prices for crypto
Choose yes/no contract positions
Complex for newcomers
Visit Crypto.com
Some of you may know Crypto.com as a cryptocurrency exchange, but it now also has a separate prediction market website for US users, including those in Hawaii. Additionally, there’s an Android trading app, under the name “OG”, rather than Crypto.com.
While it doesn’t have the same market selection as the two sites above, the basic options are covered, including spots. Crypto, politics, and more. Additionally, the site is very easy to navigate, so we’d recommend it for beginners.
The main selling point of this platform is the fee structure, which is simpler and cheaper than other sites. You pay $0.02 on all event contracts only if you sell them. In other words, if you hold them until the event finishes, you pay no fees, win or lose.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Conclusion – Prediction Markets Are Legal in Hawaii for Now.
In summary, prediction markets are still legal for users aged 18+ in Hawaii. However, the situation is definitely something that we’ll be monitoring closely, as a battle of Hawaii state laws vs federal laws already looks to be partly underway.
For now, you can legally sign up to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to trade event contracts. You just need to complete full KYC to verify your account first.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
You can use prediction markets in Hawaii as it stands. However, the landscape is moving quickly, so this could be subject to change.
Most prediction market sites are legal in Hawaii, as long as they are CFCT-regulated. The biggest brands include Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com.
Prediction markets are not banned at the moment, but the Hawaii lawmakers are making moves to ban them. That said, any banning order will be challenged at the federal level.
