Esports prediction markets sites are bigger than ever and this guide will explain what they are and how you can use them. Essential for getting a safe, fair and responsible way to make your competitive gaming predictions.
We will start by explaining what prediction markets are and examine how they apply to esports like Counter Strike 2 and League of Legends. Plus you’ll get to see which brands give you the broadest range of event contracts, regardless of whether you want to make your predictions on Call of Duty, Rainbow Six or even Overwatch.
Esports prediction markets are simply when you make a prediction of something to happen in the world of esports, and then purchase an event contact that corresponds to this prediction. Here are the kinds of event contracts that you could purchase:
Cloud9 to win the Call of Duty League tournament
100 Thieves to win their next game against SadFamous
The CS2 game between STATE and FaZe Up Next will have more than 2.5 maps played
It will be the prediction markets site who originally puts on these contracts, but then the price of the contract will fluctuate according to the demand from the traders at the site. You will see that the price will vary between $0.01 and $0.99. The most expensive contracts are those more likely to be correct, whereas the cheaper ones are riskier.
You can trade your contracts at any time before the event settles, but once the event has settled, a correct contract can be redeemed for $1.00, while an incorrect contract will be worthless. As a result, you stand to make larger returns from winning a riskier and cheaper contract than a more expensive and less risky one.
Various Kinds of Esports Event Contracts
One of the best things about esports prediction markets is just how many different ways that you can trade on the action. Not only will there be dozens of different esports involved, but here are just some examples of the kinds of event contracts that you might come across:
Esports event contract type
Example
Moneyline
Will Fnatic beat Team Heretics in League of Legends?
Tournament winner
Will Gen.G esports be this year’s LCK Season Winner?
MVP
Will Faker win an MVP award at an international event this year?
Total Games
Will the CoD game between OpTic Gaming and Project Notorious have more than 3.5 games played?
Map winner
Will Vael win the first map in their CS2 game against OG?
Game handicap
RB Esports get a 1.5 game handicap in their Rocket League match against Team Falcons. This makes it harder for them to win, but you will get better returns as a consequence.
Other
Other Will Grok AI beat T1 at League of Legends this year?
An Example of Trading Esports Prediction Markets
It’s perhaps best to give you a walkthrough of how you might actually trade an esports events contact at a prediction markets site. For this, you wanted to make a prediction on who would win the next The International tournament for Dota 2. Here are just some of the event contracts that you would see:
Team Yandex 22%
Team Vision 22%
Team Falcons 10%
BoomBoys 9%
From the above, you could see that Team Yandex and Team Vision were the clear favorites, while Team Falcons and BoomBoys were relative outsiders. You thought that Team Yandex would win, and therefore you purchased one of the relevant event contracts for this scenario. The contract was priced at $0.22 reflecting the perceived 22% chance that people thought Team Yandex had of winning.
If Team Yandex went on to actually win The International, your event contract would then be redeemable at a value of $1.00. This would mean that you had made a profit of $0.78, not including any commission fees.
However, if you backed one of the relative outsiders such as BoomBoys to win and they managed to do so, you would have made greater returns. After all, the contract for BoomBoys to win would have been priced at 9%, and therefore your returns (not including any fees) would be $0.91 per contract. Just so you know, the trading fees at prediction markets sites are usually negligible and are rarely over $0.02 per contract.
Pros and Cons of Esports Prediction Trading
So why is it that so many people are turning to trade event contracts for esports and not making
economy predictions
instead? Here are the main pros and cons of giving esports a try:
Pros and Cons
Vibrant trading community
Lots of interesting event contracts
Live and prematch trading
Live stream the action
Can be hard to predict
Three of the Best Esports Prediction Market Apps
While most prediction markets sites can be pretty good for letting you make sports and
politics predictions, you might have to search further afield to find a decent brand with esports event contracts. Thankfully, each of the following three sites should be able to help you out:
Prediction markets brand
Typical esports event contracts
Kalshi
League of Legends, Valorant, Counter Strike 2, Call of Duty, Dota 2, Rainbow 6
Polymarket
Counter Strike 2, League of Legends, Dota 2, Valorant, Call of Duty, Mobile Legends, Rainbow Six, Honor of Kings, Overwatch, StarCraft II, Rocket League, StarCraft: BroodWars
OG
League of Legends
Kalshi – Trusted Brand for Esports Prediction Markets
Accessible across the US
Simple to use
Explore niche and mainstream markets
Integrated prediction tools
Limited ongoing bonus offers
This is the brand that brought prediction markets into the mainstream, and so it’s little surprise to find that Kalshi would have a broad coverage of esports. These tend to be focused on the larger esports such as League of Legends, Call of Duty and Counter Strike 2, but you should still be able to make your predictions on games like Rainbow Six and Valorant.
Kalshi will serve up all of the prematch and live markets that you would expect for game winner, total maps and map winner. Plus there is good coverage of tournaments from all over the world ranging from BLAST to the CS2 Esports World Cup and so on.
Given that Kalshi is the market-leading prediction markets brand, it means that it has a large customer base that can provide plenty of liquidity for your trades. For example, a standard League of Legends game between GAM Esports and Detonation FocusMe had a trading volume of over $15,000 when we carried out this mini-review.
Polymarket – A Massive Range of Esports Prediction Markets
Excellent trading coverage
Powerful mobile app
Speedy deposits and withdrawals
Peer-to-peer exchange
Watertight security provisions
Steep learning curve
This brand is well-known for its irreverent take on prediction markets, and so it kind of makes sense that Polymarket would be especially good for esports. So what you get here is an expansive coverage of all major games like League of Legends, Counter Strike 2 and Dota 2, but there are also many niche esports here like Rocket League and StarCraft II that you won’t find at too many other places.
Polymarket also keeps things fun by adding in a live stream of the featured esports match at the top of the screen. Plus there will be an epic range of markets for things like game winner, total games, game handicap, first blood, first kill, odd/even total kills and much more.
Such an impressive coverage has helped Polymarket cultivate a huge audience for its esports. This means that major League of Legends games in the LPL frequently attract trading volume in excess of $3 million. Plus with wonderfully sleek mobile apps, Polymarket should definitely be checked out.
OG – Great for League of Legends Predictions
Deep coverage of sports markets
Live chat support
Fast withdrawals
Transaction fees on many deposit methods
At the time of writing this guide, OG only had event contracts for League of Legends. Not that this was totally underwhelming as there was a pretty strong coverage of 34 games.
These included massive clashes such as a live game between Bilibili Gaming and Top Esports, while even smaller teams like Fluxo and Vivo Keyd Stars were featured here. The markets featured tended to typically be just for the game-winner, but there was plenty of liquidity and you could easily check the price movements of the various contracts via the handy graph.
OG has also created some wonderfully user-friendly apps that you can download for free to your iOS and Android device, and it’s a great choice for anyone new to the concept of esports predictions markets.
Prediction Trading is facilitated through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA). Foris DAX Inc. and Foris Inc. (d/b/a OG ) provide access to CDNA, a platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing users to trade derivatives in accordance with CDNA’s rules and regulations.
Simple Steps to Start Esports Event Trading
While it can be difficult to correctly predict what’s going to happen in an esports tournament, the actual process of trading event contracts is relatively simple. Here is a walkthrough guide for how you can sign up to a prediction markets site and start trading:
Click on any of the links for the prediction markets brands in the banners of this page to launch their site from the browser of your computer or mobile device.
Register your account by providing the required personal information such as your name, date of birth, home address, email address and mobile number.
Log into your account and verify your identity by completing the KYC procedure.
Navigate to the cashier section and make an opening deposit of your own money via one of the accepted payment methods.
Go to the Esports section and browse the available markets for the upcoming games and tournaments.
Click on the esports event contract that matches your own prediction.
Enter in how much of that event contract you wish to purchase.
Execute your trade.
Conclusion – Get Ready to Use Our Recommended Esports Prediction Markets Sites
Esports are growing to have an increased presence at prediction markets sites and deservedly so. This is because there are many ways that you can make your predictions on esports games and tournaments, and you can do it all safely at any of our recommended sites.
Just remember that esports is notoriously unpredictable, and therefore you will need to take care to use the responsible trading tools to keep your predictions in check. But for now, simply click on any of the links for the approved prediction markets sites in the banners of this page to sign up and make your esports predictions.
Our Esports Prediction Market Apps of Choice
Esports Prediction Market Apps FAQ
Prediction markets sites will generally only accept those customers who are at least 18 years old. As a result, you will have to verify your identity before you can make your deposits and start trading.
It’s highly likely, as prediction markets are regulated on a federal level, and this means that you should be able to use them in all 50 states. Just note that certain brands like OG have voluntarily withdrawn their sports and esports markets from the states of New York, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois:
It varies according to the site used, but you will usually be expected to provide personal information like your name, address and date of birth, and then verify this by providing a scan or photo of some government-issued photo ID such as your passport or driving license. Note that you might even have to provide a selfie, proof of payment method and even a recent utility bill.
No, you will nearly always be expected to make a deposit of your money and then use this to purchase the event contracts. However, we will be sure to update the banners of this guide should any of our featured prediction markets put on any special offers that let you trade for free.
Because we have been careful to only feature those prediction markets brands that are fully regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Such regulation is essential for operating in the US, and it’ll also give you protection against fraud, insider trading and price manipulation.