Climate Prediction Market Sites: Trade Contracts On Temperature Markets

Making predictions on the climate is now possible in the US thanks to prediction market sites, the best of which you can see displayed in the banners on this page. In this guide, we’ll explain in detail exactly how it works.

On these sites, you can find numerous climate-related markets, including one-day outcomes such as the highest temperature in NYC today. Additionally, you can also buy positions on longer-term outcomes, such as the total number of Atlantic hurricanes this year. Here you’ll learn how you can buy and sell Yes/No positions on outcomes based on the chance percentage.

Best Sites for Climate Prediction Markets Online

Climate Prediction Markets – A Quick Explainer

In simple terms, climate prediction markets allow you to trade on the probability of future weather patterns and environmental outcomes. Rather than just following the forecast, you can put capital behind your analysis of events like seasonal hurricane activity and specific temperature benchmarks in major cities.

Prediction market sites operate as regulated financial exchanges. These platforms allow users to trade on the future using event contracts, functioning as “truth-seeking” tools that help participants hedge climate-related risk or speculate on global environmental trends under federal oversight.

How Climate Prediction Markets Work

Climate prediction markets work by converting complex global weather models into tradable, peer-to-peer financial derivatives. Below, we’ve provided a quick breakdown to show you exactly how it works.

• How Prices Move: Live climate contracts trade dynamically from $0.01 to $0.99. The price simply matches the crowd’s real-time consensus. For example, a contract sitting at 41¢ means the market believes that there’s a 41% chance of that extreme weather hitting.
• The Payout Reality: Getting a prediction right means your contract settles at exactly $1.00. That final dollar includes your initial entry cost basis. Missing the mark means the position drops straight to zero. It’s a clean structure that lets local businesses hedge against heavy rain while retail fans trade fast-moving weather trends.
• The Data Behind Settlement: Outcomes aren’t decided by whichever weather app you happen to check. Daily temperature markets settle against the official National Weather Service climate report, typically released the following morning, while hourly markets use The Weather Company’s data for the specific station named in that market’s rules.
• One Event, Many Contracts: Temperature markets aren’t a single Yes/No trade, they’re split into multiple bracket contracts covering different ranges for the same day (say, 68-70°F, 71-73°F, 74-76°F, and so on). Each bracket prices separately based on how likely traders think that specific range is, so you can stack a position across several brackets to trade on “warmer than average” broadly, or concentrate on one narrow range for a bigger payout if you’re confident in the exact outcome

Example of a Climate Prediction Market

Let’s look at a live market handling macro global climate trends: Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Rather than trading on a single afternoon’s forecast, traders buy and sell contracts based on whether official global scientific tracking bodies will confirm this year as the warmest on record. The table below breaks down the current market sentiment and contract pricing for this Yes/No outcome.

Other Climate Prediction Markets You Might Find

We’ve used a very straightforward example above to show you how climate prediction markets work in the simplest possible terms. To give you a clearer idea of what’s currently trending, here are some examples of climate markets available at the time of writing.

• Rain in Denver this month?
• Number of tornadoes this month?
• Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
• Temperature in Austin today at 6am EDT
• What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?

Best Prediction Markets for Trading Climate & Weather

From daily temperature swings to hurricane season, weather has become one of the most data-driven categories in prediction markets. Here’s how Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, OG, and FanDuel Predict each handle climate contracts, from city-level forecasts to long-range questions about the hottest year on record.

Polymarket

• Excellent trading coverage
• Powerful mobile app
• Speedy deposits and withdrawals
• Peer-to-peer exchange
• Watertight security provisions

• Steep learning curve

Polymarket’s Climate & Science category spans 417 markets, with 202 of those sitting under Weather alone. Coverage runs from daily high-temperature brackets in cities across six continents to longer-horizon questions like hurricane landfall probability, monthly tornado counts, and where a given year will rank among the hottest on record.

Each market resolves against sources like NHC advisories or NOAA station data, published directly in the market’s rules. Because temperature markets settle daily, they create a fast feedback loop that rewards traders who track model runs closely. For anyone who wants climate exposure that spans both tomorrow’s forecast and multi-year global trends, Polymarket’s range is hard to beat.

Kalshi

• Accessible across the US
• Simple to use
• Explore niche and mainstream markets
• Integrated prediction tools

• Limited ongoing bonus offers

Kalshi organizes its climate hub into Climate Change, Daily Temperature, Hourly Temperature, Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, and Snow and Rain, each running structured, multi-bracket markets for a dozen-plus American cities.

A trader can pick a five-degree temperature range for Dallas today or a snowfall threshold for Boston this month, with prices updating in real time via color-coded indicators. Settlement relies on the NWS Daily Climate Report, published the following morning, so every contract resolves against a transparent, government-issued source.

Trending and frequency sorting also surface which city or storm system is drawing the most volume right now. For granular, city-specific weather trading, Kalshi’s bracket structure is the most detailed available.

Crypto.com

• Level-Up Rewards available
• Welcome offer for standard trading
• Predict future prices for crypto
• Choose yes/no contract positions

• Complex for newcomers

Crypto.com folds climate contracts into its broader Prediction Trading feature, offered through Crypto.com Derivatives North America under CFTC oversight. Questions like whether the current year will finish as the hottest on record trade alongside the platform’s other event categories, using the same Market and Limit Order infrastructure and per-event position limits.

Because climate contracts are fully collateralized, every position’s maximum outcome is known before a trade is placed. Traders can fund positions in cash or by converting crypto already held on the platform, so testing a climate thesis doesn’t require a separate account or funding process.

OG

• Deep coverage of sports markets
• Live chat support
• Fast withdrawals

• Transaction fees on many deposit methods

OG’s marquee climate contract is “Year Rank Among Hottest Years on Record,” a long-horizon question that lets traders take a position on whether the current year finishes first, second, or lower in the historical rankings.

It’s a deliberately different approach from the day-to-day temperature brackets found elsewhere, favoring macro climate questions over granular daily forecasts.

Contracts trade through NADEX, with OG layering in its usual social features like leaderboards and live chat around active markets. Because OG built its identity around sports and entertainment first, climate sits as a smaller but genuine category rather than the platform’s main draw.

FanDuel Predict

• Available in dozens of states
• User-friendly mobile app
• Wide range of prediction markets
• Trusted brand in the sports industry

• Sports contracts limited to 18 states

FanDuel Predict keeps its climate category focused on big-picture macro trends, anchored by marquee questions like where the current year will rank among the hottest on record. Rather than competing with dozens of daily, city-specific temperature brackets, the app leans into high-profile climate questions that a broader audience already follows in the news.

Contracts are offered through CME Group’s CFTC-regulated exchange, via FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, featuring cents-based pricing where a 30¢ contract implies a 30% market probability. Because climate markets sit inside a standalone prediction app rather than the main sportsbook, traders get a clean, dedicated interface built specifically for tracking climate event contracts.

How Do US Climate Prediction Markets and Payouts Work?

The percentages you see on these boards are basically the crowd’s “implied probability” of a weather event happening. In the US, these weather event contracts keep things simple: the percentage is the price. If the market feels there’s a 77% chance of a major heatwave hitting the West Coast, you’ll pay exactly $0.77 for a “Yes” contract.

One of the best things about this setup is the total lack of a “vig” or a sportsbook spread. You won’t see fixed odds that are tilted in favor of a casino. Instead, prices move naturally based on how many people are buying in. Top-tier climate prediction sites let you look at the full price history and trade volume. This means you can see exactly how the market reacted to the latest hurricane update or the most recent NOAA report before you put your money down.

Since the price is determined by actual traders, it often acts as a surprisingly accurate tool for forecasting what’s coming next. It’s more transparent than a sportsbook, but it’s also a lot more dynamic, as prices can shift the second a new weather alert drops. It pays to stay sharp and keep an eye on those official meteorological reports if you want to stay ahead of the curve.

Buying and Selling Contracts for Climate Prediction Markets

Trading on climate prediction markets allows you to speculate on weather patterns and environmental data. Managing your positions is straightforward once you understand the mechanics. Understanding the buying and selling process for climate predictions comes down to three main steps:

• Entering a Position: Initiate a trade by specifying either the exact dollar amount to spend or the number of contracts to buy for your “Yes” or “No” prediction.
• Selling Early: Lock in partial profits or limit losses by exiting your position before the market resolves. Because you must find another trader to take your contracts, exit times and liquidity may vary based on market conditions.
• Holding to Resolution: Hold contracts until the market officially closes. If your prediction is correct, each contract automatically settles at $1.00, providing a clear payout for your forecast.

Are Climate Prediction Sites Legal in the US?

Yes, climate prediction markets are legal in the USA when offered by platforms registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Classified as derivatives or event contracts, they operate under federal oversight.

However, because of active lawsuits and jurisdictional battles between federal and state regulators, platform availability and specific contract legality still depend on local state laws and individual market rules.

The Pros and Cons of Climate Prediction Markets

Now that we’ve explained the concept in detail, here are the pros and cons of making predictions on the climate:

Pros and Cons

• Diverse selection of prediction markets
• Coverage of US and global events
• More transparency than fixed odds sports betting
• Available in most states

• Volatile markets and a steep learning curve

Discover the Best Sites for Climate Prediction Markets Here

Not sure where to start looking for DCM sites that offer climate prediction markets? We’ve got you covered, as you can find a ranked list of all available sites in your region in the banners on this page.

Using these banners, you can either click on to your site of choice directly and create your account, or check out our expert reviews. Take a look at our Robinhood prediction markets review as a prime example.

How We Rate a Climate Prediction Markets Site

Here’s a quick rundown of the main criteria that we cover when rating a climate prediction market site:

1. Regulation & Transparency: We confirm CFTC licensing and ensure the site provides the clear data trails and resolution rules required of a legal exchange.

2. Security: We perform a forensic check on encryption standards and fund protection to ensure your capital and data are safe.

3. Market Variety & Hedging: We look for a mix of global events and evaluate if the contracts are practical for real-world use, like farmers hedging against drought.

4. Pricing & Liquidity: We compare prices to other sites to find the best value and ensure there is enough volume for you to trade in and out easily.

5. Platform UX: We test the learning curve and interface to ensure the site is accessible for both pro traders and climate enthusiasts.

6. Customer Support: We verify 24/7 access to human-led support and the quality of their technical documentation.

How to Make Predictions on the Climate – Step-by-step

Before we finish, here is a short step-by-step guide to walk you through the process of making predictions on the climate from start to finish:

1. Choose – Start by reading our prediction market site reviews and deciding which prediction market site is the right one for you.

2. Sign-up – Access the site via the banners on our page and create your account.

3. Verify – Verify your email address and phone number, followed by photo ID documentation if requested.

4. Fund – Deposit funds into your account using fiat or cryptocurrency.

5. Browse – Take a look at the selection of climate prediction markets.

6. Predict – Once you’ve found a market, back a Yes or No prediction for the event.

7. Buy – Buy some contracts for your prediction market.

8. Sell/resolve – Either sell your position or wait for the market to resolve.

Making Predictions on the Climate – Final Words

Climate prediction markets have evolved into a serious financial tool, allowing you to trade weather data with the same precision as a tech stock. By using regulated platforms like Kalshi, you’re no longer just guessing if it will rain, you’re buying and selling contracts based on real-time data from agencies like NOAA.

Whether you’re hedging against 2026’s record-breaking heat or tracking hurricane paths, these exchanges provide a transparent, secure way to turn climate insights into a portfolio strategy.

The best part? You have total control. You can hold your position until the final temperature is recorded or sell your contracts early as the forecast shifts to lock in a profit. If you’re ready to get started, the licensed sites listed on this page offer the best liquidity and security in the US. Dive in, watch the charts, and trade the trends.

Explore These Climate Predictions

Prediction Markets on the Climate FAQ

• 🌍 Can you make predictions on climate change?
  Yes. You are able to trade on climate related outcomes by buying and selling Yes/No contracts. For example, if you take a “Yes” position on a future event, like global temperatures rising by a certain date, and it resolves in your favor, each contract typically pays out $1.
• ⚖️ Is it legal to make climate predictions in the US?
  Yes, but only through regulated platforms. In the U.S., you can use CFTC-approved exchanges like Kalshi, where these contracts are treated as financial products rather than traditional bets.
• 🏦 Where can you make climate predictions in the US?
  Climate prediction markets are available on Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) such as Kalshi. Some platforms, like Robinhood, may provide access through partnerships, but the underlying contracts are still hosted on regulated exchanges overseen by the CFTC.
• 📊 Where does the data come from to decide the winner?
  These markets rely on trusted, official sources to settle contracts. For climate trades, that usually means data from government agencies like NOAA or NASA. The contract clearly states which agency’s report will be the final word.
• 🌡️ What kind of climate events can I trade on?
  There’s a wide variety of market types you can trade on, including extreme weather events, temperature records, and daily weather statistics.