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The ‘Big Four’ states of California, New York, Florida and Texas could account for 23% of all US online sports betting GGR by 2027, according to the latest edition of the US Sports Betting Market Monitor from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG).

The report includes several key data points and analysis from the US sports betting market, including year-on-year growth of nationwide betting handle and GGR, as well as predictions for the future of the sector.

Below, iGaming NEXT sets out some of the key talking points from the October edition of the report, using data up to August 2023.

Big Four-cast

This month’s report set out its forecast for the so-called ‘Big Four’ states of California, Florida, New York and Texas, from now until 2027.

The charts show an expected increase in market share for those states, across both retail and online sports betting.

While California is not yet expected to launch online sports betting during the period, the state is predicted to account for a huge 33% of all retail sports betting GGR nationwide by 2027.

That expectation is trailed at significant distance by Florida, where the share of retail betting is anticipated to reach 3%, and New York, where the share is expected to hit 1%.

In Texas, meanwhile, a retail sports betting launch is not currently anticipated.

As for the online sector, the Big Four states are expected to account for some 23% of nationwide sports betting GGR by 2027.

That market share is expected to be driven by New York, which is set to maintain a 10% nationwide share of online betting GGR, and Texas, which could secure some 9% of the national online betting market by 2027, according to EKG.

Florida, meanwhile, is set to take around 4% of national online betting GGR.

Elsewhere in the October report, EKG set out what an online sports betting monopoly in Florida could mean for Hard Rock, which has been selected as an exclusive operator of online sports betting in the state.

A monopoly on online sports betting in the state alone is expected to generate $815m in GGR for Hard Rock in 2027, around 4.5% of the anticipated total US market, predicted to be worth some $18.3bn.

EKG’s forecast has been discounted for the state’s planned monopoly, the report said, but remains a “somewhat conservative” estimate.

The report points out that Hard Rock Bet’s online sports betting app has been “showing marked improvement” in EKG’s app testing, “and is close to breaking into the top 10 of our rankings.”

The situation in Florida remains fluid, EKG added, with Hard Rock Bet’s possible monopoly depending on the outcome of several court challenges which are still pending.

Online GGR per adult by state

This graph shows the total estimated online GGR per adult by state over the past 12 months.

New Jersey is by far the standout leader in this category, registering upwards of $120 in online sports betting GGR per adult over the period.

EKG pointed out that the state is helped by its mature status and has also “benefitted significantly from border-crossing New York City area bettors.”

On the subject of New York, the state came in at a healthy second place with more than $100 in GGR per adult, a milestone only reached by one other state on the list; Arizona in third.

Meanwhile Illinois, Colorado, Maryland, Tennessee and Virginia all registered GGR per adult of between $80 and $100.

The next cohort, where GGR per adult fell between $60 and $80, included Indiana, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

At the very bottom of the chart, two states recorded GGR per adult of less than $20. 

Those included Washington DC, where a much-criticised setup means DC Lottery-operated app GambetDC is the only app available throughout the entire district, while a small cohort of other operators are strictly limited to specific retail locations.

The other state to register under $20 of GGR per adult was Arkansas, where just three online sportsbooks are currently available.

It is worth noting that in Kansas, Maryland, Ohio and Massachusetts, online sports betting has been available for under 12 months, meaning comparisons for the past 12 months do not correspond directly to those in other states.

GGR growth by state

October’s report saw the continuation of a running theme in recent months, with GGR continuing to grow across all active states despite declines in handle in some more mature markets.

Oregon stood out as the fastest growing single state by GGR, with a year-on-year growth rate of 78.2% for the trailing 12-month period, compared to the previous 12 months.

Wyoming was the second-fastest growing state, with GGR growth of 50.1%, while Connecticut saw a 49.8% uptick, Illinois was up 49.4%, and Tennessee GGR grew by 44.6% year-on-year.

Those states all saw a corresponding increase in their overall share of the online sports betting market.

Two of the largest sports betting markets, New York and New Jersey, also saw continued healthy year-on-year GGR growth.

In New York, GGR was up 30.6%, while its share of the overall US online sports betting market grew from 14.6% to 17.8%.

In New Jersey, GGR jumped 26.6% year-on-year, but the state lost national market share overall, as that figure dropped from 13.2% to just under 10%.

Washington DC again stood out as a slow mover, registering the lowest rate of GGR growth at just 8.7%, while its share of the national market fell from an already modest 0.14% to just 0.09%.

It is worth noting that year-on-year increases in GGR were accompanied by drops in sports betting handle in several states including Nevada, New Jersey, West Virginia, Indiana and Michigan.

EKG’s monthly report provides a digest of news and data points, including forecasts, for the emerging market for regulated sports betting in the United States. Please contact managing director Chris Krafcik for more information.

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