Whether you are a savvy sports bettor moving your attention to the NFL or a fan who is looking to place your first wager, you’ll need to find the right NFL betting strategy. Our short guide will get you started.
We’ll show you the bets available and the factors that can affect any strategy, both on and off the field. You’ll also get tips on what you need to do to wager safely and responsibly, and that includes finding the right place to bet.
The NFL is arguably the biggest league in the US, culminating in the Super Bowl and seeing the new champions crowned. All of this can mean that betting on the NFL can be a thrilling and exciting experience. However, the difference between being a savvy bettor and a casual ‘punter’ will come down to the amount of preparation, analysis, and research you put into it. That’s where this NFL sports betting strategy guide comes in and provides help with understanding betting lines, analyzing games, and the factors that affect them.
What Types of Wagers Will Make Up Your NFL Betting Strategy?
If you want to learn
how to bet on American football, then that needs to start with the basics, and while we are confident that there is nobody reading this that doesn’t know the rules of the game, there is no harm in going through some of the most popular bets available to any bettor.
Type of bet
Description
Example
Notes
Moneyline bets
These are straight bets where you place your wager on who will win the game. As with all moneyline bets, odds are different for favorites and underdogs.
Arizona Cardinals -180
(Bet $180 to win $100)
Baltimore Ravens +160
(Bet $100 to win $160)
You could also combine two or more of these as part of an NFL parlay betting strategy, and even include other markets like first TD scorer for higher potential return at higher risk.
Point spread bets
This is probably the most common bet on NFL games, and features heavily in many strategies. In essence it levels the playing field between two teams who have a marked difference on paper.
Buffalo Bills -3.5
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
This means the Bills are favored to win by more than 3.5 points, so if you bet on them, they need to win by 4 points or more. If you opt for a wager on the Bengals instead, they will either need to win or lose by fewer than 3 points for you to collect.
Over/Under bets
These bets ask you to predict whether the total combined score will be over a predefined amount
Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans
Over/Under 47.5
Similar markets are often available for a single team’s score, or individual player stats like TDs or number of yards. All of these would be considered within an NFL over-under betting strategy and would involve plenty of analysis and number crunching before any of these wagers are placed.
Doing Your Research to Build the Right NFL Betting Strategy
It doesn’t matter if you are putting together an
NHL betting strategy
or an NFL live betting strategy, the same rules still apply. You need to do your research and analyse the available data. Luckily, with the amount of data generated by games and the huge amount of 24/7 coverage of everything that happens on or off the field, you have plenty to work with. There is, however, also the problem of too much information, so to start with, you may want to concentrate your efforts in a few key areas:
Look at the head-to-head records of teams/players involved
– One team may look better on paper, but how do they fare against that particular opposition? Look at the match-ups and the offensive and defensive metrics and really hone down who is more likely to carry the day,
Check the location of the game
– look for East Coast teams travelling west, and how playing hours later than normal might affect performance. Also, look to see which teams might have had a short week, having less time to prepare since their last game.
Player and team morale
– As well as any physical factors, there are also plenty of mental factors involved. If a team is on a losing run, they are not likely to be in the best of spirits, or there could be some off-field controversy in a star player’s personal life that could affect what happens on the field.
Check for injuries
– most teams have big rosters and replacements, but injuries to key players are bound to affect the odds you see before a game. This becomes a bigger factor the closer to a game any announcements are made.
Timing is everything
– look at the timing of your bet. There can often be plenty of value early on before too many other bets have been placed, especially if your strategy is centered on underdogs. The downside to this is that any last-minute announcements can easily turn things the other way.
Check out the weather
– football is played in winter, which also means wind, rain, and snow can be factors. Plenty of adverse weather can affect scoring, vital if you center on under/over markets, so build that into any analysis you are putting together
Look for trends for value
– a popular team that gets plenty of backing from the public may force sportsbooks to adjust their odds accordingly, creating a value bet if you back the other team. This is called ‘fading the public’ and can also make up part of your strategy.
Important Tips for Building a Sustainable NFL Betting Strategy
Before we close off this short guide, there are some other tips that have more to do with you than the strategy itself, but are every bit as important:
🤔 Bet with Your Head, Not Your Heart
Data beats gut feeling every time, especially if you have an emotional attachment (good or bad) to one of the teams or players taking part. Personal bias is what increases our love of the sport, but it can be a major problem to an objective strategy.
💰 Wager Responsibly
Some strategies can take a lot of time out of your day, and funds to perfect. Effective bank management is key to any sustainable strategy, so do not go over any of the limits you have set for yourself, either financially or the amount of time you spend doing it.
🏠 Find the Right Place to Bet
It might seem like an afterthought, but which sportsbook you choose can have an effect on your strategy. Whether it’s slightly better odds, which can make a huge difference to your balance over the course of a season, or an easy-to-use platform that helps you get bets on in double quick time during live games, finding the right place is essential. Our reviews on this site are carried out by an expert team with years of experience, and they compile extensive reports and rate each one they come across. Using these as a resource can make the search for the right sportsbook a whole lot easier.
Conclusion – The One-step Guide to Building an NFL Betting Strategy
If you want to know
how to bet on football
and build your own strategy, then you can’t just dive straight in and work it out as you go along. It takes analysis and research to work out what is best for you, and that starts with knowing the types of bets involved and the various factors that can affect any strategy you are building. After reading this guide, you’ll have a good grounding in the basics so you can begin to forge your own system, or at least know what to look for in somebody else’s. You’ll also know where to place your bets for that strategy, which can often be one of the most important steps of all.
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NFL Betting Strategy FAQs
In short what makes a good NFL betting strategy is the same factors that make a good
NBA betting strategy
or one for any other sport. It comes down to research and analysis and finding something that fits with your betting style.
No. As well as any strategy is put together, the sporting world is unpredictable and can fly in the face of what the stats say. No strategy is 100% perfect, but some are better than others and some will suit you more than others.
While spread bets are probably the most popular NFL bets, not all strategies will be based on them. For instance, an NFL underdog betting strategy might include outright moneyline wagers instead of playing the spread.